Military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko shared his analysis.On March 16, 2014, U.S. Senator John McCain called Russia a “gas station” in an interview with CNN, a term that became widely used to vividly describe Russia’s role in the world order. But in 2025, Russia is effectively losing this “gas station” status, transforming from a leading exporter into an importer.The current crisis in Russia’s oil refining industry is driven by regular Ukrainian drone strikes, which have damaged at least 50% of refineries in the European part of the country — the region hosting the bulk of Russia’s refining capacity at over 4.5 million barrels per day. These refineries, which received expensive Western equipment upgrades, now face damage that prevents rapid repair or replacement and may make restoration impossible due to sanctions.As of now, Russia’s refining shortfall exceeds 2 million barrels per day, creating a severe gasoline shortage across most regions. Attempts to boost exports face hurdles, as rising Russian oil supplies lower prices, while buyers willing to risk sanctions demand discounts.“The decline in crude oil refining and the resulting increase in exports cannot solve the industry’s main problem: production exceeds export capacity, supplying the domestic market with more oil than Russia can refine, export, or even store,” he noted.Eventually, this will force Russian leadership to make tough decisions, such as shutting oil wells to cut production — a move that threatens both refining and the entire oil extraction sector.According to the analytical information from Russian reports and public documents (2018-2019), most of Russia’s oil fields are so depleted that shutting wells would make it impossible to resume production. It is a deadlock: either continue extracting oil without knowing what to do with it, or close the fields with no chance of restarting production.All this suggests that Russia faces not only a gasoline shortage, but if European refineries go offline, possibly in early 2026, the real consequence will be a collapse of oil production.“Under Putin, Russia will lose not only its 'gas station' status but also its position as a leading oil producer and exporter, with the industry so damaged and degraded that a full recovery to its original level will likely never be possible,” Kovalenko concluded.