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Russia's gas empire crumbles as Europe finalizes energy independence plan

global.espreso.tv
Thu, 09 Oct 2025 18:31:00 +0300
Russia's gas empire crumbles as Europe finalizes energy independence plan
The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.The EU ambassadors have approved a comprehensive plan to gradually eliminate Russian gas imports, with new contracts ending in January 2026, short-term agreements expiring by June 2026, and long-term contracts terminating by January 2028. While the final decision awaits approval from EU leaders, the move signals an irreversible shift away from Russian energy dependence.The implications extend far beyond simple supply chain adjustments. For decades, Gazprom and other Russian energy giants built extensive commercial networks across Europe, using business relationships to spread Kremlin-friendly lobbying campaigns. The EU's decision effectively destroys these carefully cultivated connections overnight. European elites who previously prioritized profits over security concerns now have no incentive to maintain these relationships, knowing that collaboration with Russian energy companies will cease entirely after 2028, regardless of how the war in Ukraine concludes.A prime example is Francisco Reynés, director of Naturgy, one of Spain's largest private energy companies. In 2018, Reynés celebrated with Russian Ambassador Yuri Korchagin at the arrival of the first Russian LNG shipment, planning a "grand energy hub" for Russian resources in Europe through Spain.Naturgy held a long-term contract with Novatek extending to 2041, which must now be terminated by January 2028. Reynés sent two letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in June and August 2025, arguing that abandoning Russian energy would "only make Putin stronger"—a transparent attempt to protect commercial interests while inadvertently amplifying Moscow's narratives.Turkey is delivering a second blow to Russia's gas empire, also targeting the 2027-2028 timeframe. According to Turkish energy analysts, Ankara plans to replace over half of its Russian gas imports with domestic production and American supplies. This strategy builds on new Black Sea deposits discovered in 2023-2024 and recent political agreements with Washington. In late September, Turkish state company BOTAŞ signed a long-term agreement with the United States for gas supplies through 2045—notably, just as contracts between Turkish companies and Russian gas suppliers worth approximately 25 billion cubic meters expire at year's end.The shift is possible because Russian gas has become genuinely politically toxic, shattering the myth of Moscow's indispensability as an energy supplier. The narrative that Russia's control of the "gas valve" made dealing with the Kremlin's aggressive behavior necessary has finally collapsed.The third devastating impact concerns what Russia will do with massive surplus pipeline gas volumes from 2026-2028. The much-touted Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to China offers no salvation. Despite loud announcements from Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and President Vladimir Putin about a deal with Beijing, Reuters reports the parties have reached no agreement on price, volumes, timelines, or investment responsibilities. Even if all issues were resolved immediately—after seven years of failed negotiations—Power of Siberia 2 wouldn't reach full projected capacity until 2034-2035.Amid strategic failures, Gazprom elites are fighting over the redistribution of liquid assets seized from other Russian oligarchs. The battle between Gazprom's lobby and the Makhmudov clan over assets taken from billionaire Strukov has already drawn in Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina—and this is only the beginning.The era of Russian energy influence is ending for Gazprom and related companies, ushering in an age of internal "hunger games" that will drag associated industries deeper into decline.On October 8, European Union ambassadors agreed to forward a document on phasing out Russian oil and gas by 2028 to their ministers. The corresponding law is expected to be approved on October 20.
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