1. In Putin's logic, the end of the war involves the following points:Complete occupation of Donbas.Completion, at least in its basic parameters, of the formation of the Cheburnet (sovereign Russian internet), which the Kremlin's internal services see as the main safeguard against future revolutions.Partial lifting of sanctions and the beginning of a political dialogue with the West.2. From the Kremlin's perspective, the main obstacle to seizing Donbas is Europe. After all, the EU is currently the primary brake on lifting sanctions against the Russian Federation. But we must understand that for Europe, which declares the primacy of values over all else, answers to two questions are crucial:How will long-term European security be ensured?What are the parameters of future economic costs associated with the new geopolitical realities (the EU does not want to be an eternal cash cow).3. I have written this before: as soon as the EU understands the answers to these questions, its opinion on Ukraine may begin to change. And Russia believes that attacks on Poland or Estonia will accelerate this process (whether this is actually true is not yet clear).4. The main mistake of the Russians is that the U.S. is not yet ready to provide answers to these questions because, in Trump's logic, he shouldn't have to do anything, and everyone should pay for his inaction.5. This is why we are currently in a stalemate. Europe is afraid, the U.S. is unwilling, and Russia is capable of nothing but provocations. China is traditionally waiting.6. The situation can only change when one of the parties changes its position. This will happen. But not now, and for the time being, it is very difficult to predict which of the four players will be the first to break this balance (I believe the least realistic scenario is Russia starting a military operation, and the most realistic is a move by China).7. At the same time, there is no need to worry about the EU stopping aid to Ukraine for now. Why? Read point 3.SourceAbout the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.