With high probability, a chain of the following consequences would emerge:1. The scale of hostilities would decrease significantly, but tension along the line of contact would remain. There would be Russian provocations and sabotage operations, resulting in Ukrainian casualties. Russia would use these incidents to accuse Ukraine. Ukraine has already experienced this before, and it would certainly happen again now — on an even larger scale. This would place serious pressure on those of us stuck in a “no peace, no war” state.2. The sense of war would become fully localized to the front line and frontline regions. The rest of the country would try to immerse itself even more in carefree living. The gap between the military/volunteers and ordinary civilians would grow. As a result, tensions would increase within the country between those whose thoughts remain with the war and those who are “tired” and favor peace at any cost.3. The United States and the EU would significantly ease sanctions against Russia and noticeably normalize relations with Moscow. Diplomatic attention toward Ukraine would decline. Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO would become an off-limits topic in public communications.4. Russia would begin to recover economically, ramping up its military-industrial complex and intelligence operations in preparation for the next war against Ukraine and for dismantling NATO and the EU.5. The United States and the EU would almost completely stop providing Ukraine with weapons and would significantly reduce financial aid.6. The question would arise: what to do with Ukraine’s armed forces? The war would seem to have stopped, there would be no perceived need for such a large military, and it would be impossible to maintain it without partner assistance. Yet Russian forces would still be there, keeping the line of contact under constant pressure. Meanwhile, the “peaceful” part of the population would demand immediate demobilization and the reopening of borders for men. This issue would sharply escalate social conflict.7. At the same time, the country would plunge into an election frenzy. The main campaign topics would become “Who in Ukraine is to blame for starting the war?” and “Who in Ukraine is to blame for ending it this way?” Everyone would collectively forget about the Russians and the threats looming from them. Each political camp would find its main enemies domestically. Russia would actively fuel this internal strife, with more than enough tools and resources to do so. Personally, I can't even imagine the level of chaos into which the country would descend during and after the elections — if it even makes it through election day.That’s roughly how I envision the "first day" after freezing the war. What’s described above is far from everything Ukrainian society would face. It’s a very dry outline. I’m writing honestly about my feelings without adding extra gloom. This is how I see the real picture if the war were frozen under today’s circumstances. And that’s only if we freeze combat operations without agreeing to Moscow’s political demands. If we did agree to those — it’s better not to imagine at all.Right now, we should not be waiting for peace but mobilizing the nation to defend the state. We cannot have two separate societies — one at war and the other simply waiting for peace. We must think about asymmetric strikes against the enemy, return to ideas that didn’t work before, and figure out how to make them succeed. If every action we take demonstrates this determination, worthy allies will stand beside us — and the opinion of others should not concern us.SourceAbout the author: Mykhailo Basarab, political scientist.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.