Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, said there are signs that North Korea will send more troops to help Russia before the summer.

Source: Ants Kiviselg at a briefing on Friday, 24 January, European Pravda reports citing ERR, Estonian public broadcaster

Details: Kiviselg noted that several thousand North Korean soldiers, who are fighting mainly in Russiaʼs Kursk Oblast, have already been killed or wounded, and there are reports that North Korea will send a new batch of soldiers to help Russia by summer.

The Estonian intelligence officer reports that Russian troops have not yet been able to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast, and the Ukrainian military still controls about half of the territory they initially seized. 

Quote from Ants Kiviselg: "Fighting continues on the outskirts of this territory, where Russian troops have not made significant progress."

Details: Kiviselg further emphasised that Sudzha, the largest settlement in Kursk Oblast and a crucial hub for logistics, is still under Ukrainian control.

Kursk Oblast

Photo: DeepStateMap

Ants Kiviselg believes that the number of casualties among the North Korean military fighting on the side of Russian troops in Kursk Oblast reaches several thousand. 

He also noted that if North Korea wants to maintain its presence in the war zone, it will have to start rotating soldiers.

Quote from Ants Kiviselg:"This week, there were reports that North Korea is planning to send a new batch of soldiers by the summer. It is unknown what their exact purpose will be, whether to introduce new units in full strength or to replace losses in units that are already fighting. Only time will tell."

Details:Additionally, the Estonian intelligence officer examined the frontline combat operations. The most intense fighting, as before, is occurring in Donetsk Oblast, specifically in the vicinity of Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka, he said, adding that the last week has been comparable to prior weeks.

Russian forces were making tactical advances along the entire front line, Kiviselg reported.

Quote from Ants Kiviselg:"The most critical situation at the moment is in Toretsk and Velyka Novosilka."

Details:Kiviselg says Russian troops have left only one northeastern district in Toretsk, but even it is within the range of indirect fire from Russian forces.

Toretsk.

Photo: DeepStateMap

Ukrainian forces are under threat of encirclement in Velyka Novosilka, which "will probably force Ukrainians to retreat from there in the coming days".

Velyka Novosilka

Photo: DeepStateMap

However, the Estonian intelligence officer noted that the biggest combat clashes are taking place near Pokrovsk. 

Quote from Ants Kiviselg:"The settlement is well fortified by Ukrainian forces and adjacent territories, so Russian troops are trying to bypass it and put pressure on Ukrainian units, creating a risk of encirclement."

Pokrovsk

Photo: DeepStateMap

Background:

• The US announced in late December 2024 that North Korean troops fighting against Ukraine on the side of Russia in Kursk Oblast were committing suicide to avoid being captured by the Ukrainian defence forces.
• It was also reported that in the last week of December alone, North Korean troops lost 1000 killed and wounded in Kursk Oblast.
• On 18 January 2025, DeepState analysts reported that the Russians were advancing near a number of settlements in Donetsk Oblast, including Velyka Novosilka, where, according to DeepState, the Russians began storming some areas.
• On 19 January, UK Defence Intelligence wrote that in the central part of Donetsk Oblast, Russian troops were increasing pressure on Velyka Novosilka. 

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