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Whoever lifts Russia sanctions first will dominate its currency market — expert

global.espreso.tv
Tue, 16 Dec 2025 20:02:00 +0200
Whoever lifts Russia sanctions first will dominate its currency market — expert
Financial expert Andrii Shevchyshyn told Espreso this while commenting on the rise of the euro against the dollar, which has led to the euro becoming more expensive in Ukraine."The euro's appreciation is related to the difference in monetary policy between the U.S. and European central banks. It's expected that Trump will announce a new Fed chair before Christmas. Obviously, this will be Trump's person who will implement his ideas, including a softer credit and monetary policy for the U.S. So this suggests that the Fed will continue lowering rates next year, thus reducing the dollar's value. The thing is, the debt burden of trillions of dollars is an unbearable load for the States, and the lower the rate, the easier it will be to service these debts."On December 10, the U.S. Federal Reserve made the expected decision to lower the key rate from 4% to 3.75%. It was from this moment that the euro began to rise. Currently, the dollar-to-euro ratio is approximately 1.178. The expert predicts the rate could reach 1.2. In Ukraine, the official euro exchange rate on December 16 reached 49.65 hryvnias, and in some banks the selling rate exceeded 50 hryvnias.According to the expert, the European Central Bank would also prefer to stimulate its own exports by weakening the euro. However, inflation in Europe has accelerated slightly, and a strong euro helps smooth out these inflationary trends."The European Central Bank's next actions will depend—of course—on how the situation develops, including regarding the peace agreement. And the most interesting point, in my view, is that the decision on a peace agreement could now influence the global dollar-euro dynamics," says Andrii Shevchyshyn. "The thing is, the next step after concluding a peace agreement will be lifting sanctions on Russia. Whoever lifts sanctions first will gain dominance of their currency in the Russian market. A very large market."The analyst suggests that the U.S. will be the first to lift sanctions on Russia."This is, of course, a hypothesis, but I still consider it a possible development: Europe will approach lifting sanctions very cautiously, doing so as slowly as it imposed them. But the States will do everything faster, and then the dollar will gain additional demand. Because there's the ruble, there's the yuan, and here a trade path opens up, so additional demand for the dollar could be generated from Russia's side," predicts Andrii Shevchyshyn. "Plus, we don't know about Trump's closed negotiations with Putin, and what agreements exist there beyond the peace deal. From what's been published, Trump expects quite aggressive expansion and investment policies, which could indeed support the dollar and give it an additional boost, including against Europe. On the other hand, if the war and hostilities continue, oddly enough, the euro may continue to receive support, because Europe remains import-oriented, both for fuel and weapons, etc."
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