On December 8, 2024, after an eight-day assault on the capital, Damascus was captured by units of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, ending Assad's 24-year rule. Assad himself fled to Russia.It was Russia, ten years ago, that turned Syria into a war testing ground. And now, a decade later, the same strategy is already at work in Ukraine.In Syria, Russia was primarily interested in the oil-rich areas of Deir ez-Zor. Part of the control over the fields was handed over to private military companies like Wagner: they "guarded" the wells in exchange for a share of the profits from oil sales. Accounting was virtually non-existent, and trade took place through shadow schemes. For the Kremlin, this was not only a financial resource but also an opportunity to influence the global oil market.In Ukraine, the situation is similar. The main theater of military operations is Donbas, where natural resources estimated by experts to be worth $200–250 billion are concentrated."The Russian economic logic is simple: the Kremlin views Russia's war expenditures in Ukraine as an investment in future control over these minerals."In Syria, Moscow gained two key military facilities: the port of Tartus and the Hmeimim airbase, which became the main springboard for expanding Russia's presence in the region. This allowed the Kremlin to influence Israel, pressure Turkey, and participate in shaping the rules of the game in the Middle East.In Ukraine, the Russians have a similar goal: control over Donbas creates a permanent zone of instability on NATO's eastern flank. This is an element of blackmail: Moscow can either threaten escalation or use the war as a tool for negotiations with the West.In 2015–2016, Russian aviation, together with Bashar al-Assad's forces, used a "scorched earth" tactic in Syria. Its essence was that strikes were not aimed at military targets, but at the entire territory controlled by the opposition at that time. Aviation dropped cluster and high-explosive bombs on residential areas of Aleppo. Houses, markets, and schools were destroyed.Attacks on medical facilities became systemic. Amnesty International and the UN recorded dozens of destroyed medical facilities. According to Syrian monitoring groups, during the siege of Aleppo in 2016, more than 70% of medical facilities were damaged or destroyed by such attacks."A similar tactic of massive strikes is used by the invaders against Ukrainian cities. Mariupol, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and other settlements have suffered the same carpet bombings. High-rise buildings turned into ruins, and civilians died in their own homes."Strikes on Ukrainian hospitals and schools: in Mariupol in March 2022, Russian aviation destroyed a maternity hospital, killing pregnant women, children, and doctors.In Syria, the Russians massively used the "double tap" tactic. It consisted of a second strike after the first attack, when rescuers arrived at the scene. This killed not only civilians but also those who tried to save them.A similar tactic is used by the occupiers in Ukraine. One of the resonant examples is the shelling of Pokrovsk in August 2023: after the first attack on the city center, police, emergency services, and medics arrived to help, but 40 minutes later, a second missile hit, taking the lives of nine more people, including rescuers.The goal is not so much a military result as terror against the civilian population. In Syria, the consequence of this Russian tactic was a wave of migration: more than 3 million Syrian refugees went to Europe, causing a political crisis."In Ukraine, the tactic is repeated: strikes on energy infrastructure that leave cities without light and heat; massive drone and missile attacks on civilian areas; the destruction of entire cities – from Mariupol to Bakhmut."Result: more than 6 million Ukrainians have gone abroad, and several more million have become internally displaced persons. This is not only a humanitarian tragedy but also a blow to the economy and demographics.The Syrian scenario showed: an uncontrolled flow of migrants can destabilize Europe. The Kremlin deliberately fueled the crisis, using it to pressure EU countries."In Ukraine, the consequences are similar: mass emigration creates challenges for the Ukrainian budget, increases the social burden, and at the same time affects the policies of neighboring countries that host displaced people."In Syria, Russia temporarily became a key player in negotiations and effectively preserved Assad's regime. This gave it the opportunity to dictate terms not only to Syrian parties but also to international partners.In Ukraine, the Kremlin pursues the same goal: to block Kyiv's integration into NATO and the EU, create a "gray zone" between Russia and the West, and impose its say in resolving European security.Syria became a kind of testing ground for Russia, where it honed new methods of warfare. Ukraine is the next stage of the same strategy, only on a much larger scale. It is quite obvious: the Kremlin's tactics do not change, only the scale of the tragedy changes.Specifically for EspresoAbout the author. Dmytro Sniehyriov, military expert, co-chairman of the Prava Sprava public initiative.The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.