U.S.The main thing we need to understand is that with Kushner's appearance, it seems, there has been a change in negotiation strategy. The U.S. has divided our negotiations into only two parts. The conditional 28 points of Witkoff and Dmitriev are divided into 27 and 1. First, the Americans agree on everything with the Russians, and then, they believe they can pressure us on territories. This is a cardinal change in approach. And a cardinal reduction in Ukraine's role in the negotiations, with complete disregard for the EU.Separately, it should be noted that the negotiations in Moscow, it seems, came down primarily to financial issues (the question of benefit for the Americans). And, perhaps, we have another problem: the Russians are approaching a point where they will separate negotiations about Ukraine and Russia-U.S. negotiations. This is one of the main challenges for which there is no answer."I also want to draw attention to the fact that the main goal of negotiations for the Russians is not territories. The main goal is Russia's return to the game. And the main goal of the U.S. is peace at any cost and money. As for Europe, it simply wants security guarantees. And they will be given to them."Amid this, it is worth noting one event that went largely unnoticed here: hearings were held in the Senate on the abduction of Ukrainian children by Russians, in which a number of very influential politicians from both parties and our ambassador Olha Stefanyshyna participated. Almost all speakers said one thing: the return of children is an unconditional prerequisite for the negotiation process. I remind you that this issue is one of Melania Trump's priorities and it will be in the focus of Trump's attention himself.ChinaIt seems that China is beginning to engage in negotiations very carefully and very selectively. The visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister to Moscow three hours before the negotiations between Witkoff, Kushner, and Putin was clearly not accidental.China's game, as I understand it, is as follows:China is trying to prevent the "merger" of Russia and the U.S. on economic issues (primarily rare earths and the Northern Sea Route). It seems Wang Yi's message was precisely about this.China believes that without Beijing, sustainable peace in Europe is impossible, and therefore, even after signing a peace treaty, both the EU and Ukraine will be forced to turn to China. Therefore, it is quite realistic that at this stage we may not see China.China will link the issue of this future peace with Taiwan.Ukraine is not a player in this field at all. Unfortunately.UkraineWe are on the eve of a deep financial crisis, multiplied by a high probability of serious street protests. The prospect of Ukraine receiving a reparations loan is becoming minimal. And therefore, a budget hole of 30 billion dollars is becoming very real.Budget revenues for 2026 are expected to increase by approximately 500 billion. This is with the fact that revenue collection for 10 months of this year has been fulfilled by 77%, and by the end of the year, we may have a shortfall of at least 300 billion. In other words, as of now, we have a real budget hole of 1 trillion.By March, the Rada must adopt laws on the introduction of VAT for individual entrepreneurs. This threatens a serious problem of street protests.What to do with all this - there are simply no answers. And all this against the background that the political crisis has not been overcome. Yermak's dismissal without a government reshuffle and an open discussion about new rules of the game simply postpones this very crisis.SourceAbout the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.