8 thoughts on the 28 points of the peace plan

1. People in Ukraine dream of peace and want it more than any international partners. All diplomatic efforts to achieve it are important and appreciated. The main thing is that they lead to peace. And for this, any plan must at least answer two questions.
2. First, can this plan stop the war? Second, what place does the human dimension occupy in the plan - the issue of deported Ukrainian children, prisoners of war, and illegally imprisoned civilians, the protection of life, security, freedom of religion, property, and other rights of millions of people under occupation. There is not a word about the fate of people under occupation in this plan. The paragraph on the humanitarian committee contains a mention of exchanges of prisoners of war and the return of civilian hostages, including children, which is not formulated as an imperative requirement. So let's focus on the first.
3. In the first question, we are talking about ending the war, not a pause of several months or years. To do this, we need to analyze whether this plan reduces or increases the likelihood that Russia will resume or expand its aggression against Ukraine in the coming years.
4. We do not see any provision in the plan for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops and all heavy weapons to a safe distance. Instead, asymmetrical military restrictions are envisaged only for Ukraine. Putin will receive territories the size of Luxembourg, which he has not yet been able to capture. Sanctions are being lifted from Russia itself so that it can freely rearm. This course of action, which weakens the victim of aggression and strengthens the aggressor, creates space for future aggression.
5. Separately, it is worth highlighting the issue of USA guarantees in maintaining peace and security in Ukraine, which has been attacked by Russia. It should be remembered that Ukraine gave up its third-largest nuclear potential in exchange for US guarantees in the Budapest Memorandum, and learned this lesson well. Specific forces and resources are needed, as well as a clear mechanism for their involvement. But this plan does not provide for them.
6. Since the EU was not involved in the preparation of this plan, there is no point in analyzing the provisions on the use of frozen Russian assets, which are mainly located in the EU. At the same time, it is worth noting the provision on the USA receiving profits from these assets as an intermediary. This is the first time in history that the USA has made its guarantees conditional on direct payments from the state that has suffered from aggression and is under protection.
7. Most importantly, the plan in its current form undermines the UN Charter and de facto establishes a new international order based on the law of force. The plan does not provide for any negative consequences for aggression, but instead provides amnesty for war crimes committed by Russia, legitimizing such actions and encouraging Russia to wage war against other countries in the future. This precedent will undoubtedly set an example for other parts of the world to follow and undermine the already fragile stability in the world.
8. Conclusion. In order to become truly peaceful, this plan needs to be refined and the human dimension needs to be included, with the involvement of Ukraine and the EU.





