According to the draft document, the Trump administration's peace plan for ending the war in Ukraine includes security guarantees modelled on NATO's Article 5, obliging the United States and its European allies to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on the entire transatlantic community.

Source: Axios, which obtained the draft agreement

Details: US President Donald Trump's administration has prepared a plan that requires painful concessions from Ukraine, but in return offers an unprecedented security guarantee.

A key element of the proposal is meeting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's main demand in talks – securing reliable guarantees from the United States and Europe.

This is the first time Trump has shown willingness to raise this issue for discussion. A senior White House official noted that the administration views the proposed guarantee as a significant victory for the Ukrainian leader in terms of long-term security.

The draft agreement states that any future significant, deliberate and prolonged armed incursion by the Russian Federation into Ukrainian territory across the agreed line of separation would be considered an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community. In such a case, the United States and its allies would be obliged to respond appropriately, including with military force.

After immediate consultations with Ukraine, NATO and European partners, the US president would determine measures to restore security, which could include intelligence and logistical assistance, economic and diplomatic action or the direct use of armed forces.

The document includes a provision that NATO members, including France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland and Finland, recognise Ukraine's security as an integral part of European stability and commit to act jointly with the United States to ensure a unified deterrence strategy.

The security guarantees would apply for the first 10 years, with the possibility of extension by mutual agreement. Compliance would be monitored by a Joint Monitoring Commission led by European partners with US participation. The agreement is intended to bear the signatures of representatives of Ukraine, Russia, the United States, the EU and NATO.

According to the White House official, Russia has been informed of the draft, though it remains unknown whether Russian leader Vladimir Putin will sign it.

Meanwhile, the plan contains strict demands for the Ukrainian side. Zelenskyy would have to agree to the loss of even more territory than Russia currently controls. In particular, the Russian Federation would obtain control over the entire Donbas, and the line of contact in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts would be largely frozen. A demilitarised zone is also envisaged between territories in the east of the country. The document requires that Russia be readmitted into the international community, including through the lifting of sanctions and the granting of amnesty for war crimes.

Axios noted that separate provisions relate to military capabilities. NATO troops would not be stationed on Ukrainian territory and the Armed Forces of Ukraine would be limited to 600,000.

US officials acknowledge that the plan may provoke a negative reaction from Trump's MAGA allies, as it effectively commits the US military to defend Ukraine if a new war happens. White House representatives emphasised that the proposal still needs to be discussed with European partners and may undergo changes.

Background:

• The Trump administration's full plan consists of 28 points. Its development was led by Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff with the involvement of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. During preparation, Witkoff held consultations with Kremlin special envoy Kirill Dmitriev
• Discussions then took place with Rustem Umierov, Secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council.
• On Thursday 20 November, the written plan along with the draft security guarantee agreement was handed to Zelenskyy by US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll.

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