Ukraine must meet three condition to launch counteroffensive — military expert
global.espreso.tv
Thu, 16 Oct 2025 12:33:00 +0300

Ukrainian military analyst Vasyl Pekhno expressed his opinion on Espreso TV. “An offensive. Trump talks a lot. We understand that he very often says things that aren’t true, that are political arguments, talking points, or simply words that portray him in a favorable, so to speak, light. In fact, these are statements that have no real, concrete basis. Of course, I understand that when we talk about Ukrainian resistance, about the desire for victory, (Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief) Syrskyi is absolutely right when he repeatedly says in Western media that you can’t win a war on the defensive,” he said.Vasyl Pekhno noted that, according to military science and brigade commanders, three conditions must be met for Ukraine to conduct offensive operations.“It’s not just a matter of firing 10 Tomahawks and immediately launching a counteroffensive. No, it doesn’t work that way. There are three conditions. The first condition is that the enemy must be stopped. The situation on the front must be fully stabilized. Can we say that the situation on our front is currently stabilized? Doubtful, because we still see a steady, slow advance by the enemy at the junction of Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions. By the way, in this direction, we have significant problems, as the enemy has already entered areas that are not as densely populated as the Ukrainian Donbas. Accordingly, we cannot say the situation is fully stabilized. We can’t even say that about Pokrovsk, where the enemy is trying to regain the initiative. The situation is rather unstable — roughly 50/50, so to speak,” he noted.Thus, the military analyst noted that the first condition is stabilizing the situation on the front — which is not the case at present.“The second condition is cutting off the enemy’s reserves. Have we already reached the point where we can say we’ve severed the enemy’s logistics along the entire front, isolated them, or destroyed Russian railways, for example? Obviously not. And the third condition, probably the least met in the current reality, is creating our own reserves. That is, it’s a matter of mobilization, of what reserves we have — and clearly, this is a problematic, more than problematic, issue. So, there is neither stabilization on the front, nor cutting off enemy reserves, nor creating our own reserves, which are the three basic conditions for a counteroffensive. Therefore, talking about possible counteroffensive actions — honestly, I wouldn’t encourage or nurture any such futile hopes, even based on statements from Donald Trump,” added Vasyl Pekhno.
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