Russia’s biggest blow to Ukraine’s gas production: will it affect heating season?
global.espreso.tv
Fri, 03 Oct 2025 21:26:00 +0300

Russian forces launched 35 missiles and 60 drones against gas infrastructure in the Poltava and Kharkiv regions. According to Naftogaz chairman Serhiy Koretskyi, the attack inflicted significant damage.“This is the largest mass attack on our gas production infrastructure since the start of the full-scale war. It is deliberate terror against civilian facilities that provide gas for people’s daily needs. There is no military sense to it — it is aimed solely at disrupting the heating season and depriving Ukrainians of heat in winter. Some of the damage is critical,” Koretskyi said.Energy company DTEK also confirmed the suspension of gas production at several facilities in the Poltava region following drone and missile strikes.The attack comes as temperatures begin to drop and the heating season starts early in some Ukrainian cities, raising concerns about possible disruptions to winter gas supplies.Restoration work may take up to a weekRussia carried out its first attack on Ukrainian gas production facilities in February 2025, forcing the country to urgently import additional volumes. At the time, Reuters reported that gas production in Ukraine had fallen by 40 percent.Before the strikes, Ukraine produced about 52 million cubic meters of gas a day while it consumed between 110 and 140 mcm a day in winter. It covered the gap from gas storage,” the news agency noted.Energy expert Yuriy Korolchuk told Espreso that the reported production drop was temporary. “In fact, everyone understood at the time that there was no 40% drop in production. There was a momentary decline until the consequences of the attack were eliminated. The same is true now. Production has stopped at some facilities, but this is temporary. I think that in about a week we can return to previous production levels,” he said.Korolchuk also noted that attacks on oil and gas infrastructure often cause large fires and smoke, which can make damage appear worse than it actually is. “Ukraine anticipated that Russia would target energy infrastructure, so there are reserves of equipment ready for rapid repairs,” he added."Such destruction is the biggest problem for gas purification systems. This is because the gas extracted from the ground is purified before it enters the main gas pipeline, which then carries it throughout Ukraine. If there was a problem with purification, the gas may have a lower calorific value. If, according to the standards, the calorific value should be 7,800 kcal/m³ and above, it may be 6,500–7,000. This means that consumers will burn more gas to get the same amount of heat," says Yuriy Korolchuk.If the attacks continue, Ukraine will have to import more gas"So far, we cannot talk about any catastrophic consequences. But if Russia strikes tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, it could really affect overall gas production. And the reduction could be irreversible. Then we will have to make more efforts, more investments, for example, connect fields, intensify production at some fields, i.e., carry out hydraulic fracturing, etc.," says Yuriy Korolchuk.The drop in gas production could mean that Naftogaz will have to quickly import additional volumes of gas from Europe. And here the question is money, because during the heating season, gas on the European market is significantly more expensive than in the summer.What will happen if there is a gas shortage during the heating seasonCurrently, no gas shortage is forecast for the heating season in Ukraine. There is enough gas in storage facilities to get through a not-too-cold winter, provided that production remains more or less stable. However, if we suddenly assume that the winter will be significantly colder than in previous years and there will be problems with importing or withdrawing gas from underground storage facilities, there is an approved action plan for such cases. This is the “Approval of Rules on the Security of Natural Gas Supply,” which was adopted back in 2015.According to this plan, consumers in each region and district are divided into five groups in a sequence that corresponds to the order in which natural gas supplies to each consumer will be suspended (restricted) in the event of a state of emergency being declared. The first group includes consumers whose natural gas supply is cut off (restricted) first in the event of a crisis situation of an emergency level, and the fifth group includes consumers, including protected ones, whose natural gas supply is cut off (restricted) last. The population, critically important enterprises, and heat producers are classified as protected consumers. This means that their gas supply will be restricted last. At the same time, the total volume of gas consumption by protected consumers cannot exceed 20% of the total volume of natural gas consumption in the region.
Latest news
