Content1. A second chance for pro-Russian forces2. Russia prepares for parliamentary elections – evidence of Kremlin influence and political pressure3. Moldovan journalist and political analyst explain how Russia pushes its agenda4. No exit polls – awaiting the full vote countEspreso explains why Russia is ready to go all-in during Moldova’s parliamentary elections and how its propaganda takes root in the minds of Moldovan voters. In addition, the editorial team spoke with local analysts and political commentators to better understand how the Kremlin operates in the domestic political field of another country.A second chance for pro-Russian forcesEarlier, in November 2024, Moldova held presidential elections that international media called a crossroads for the country, forcing it to choose between a pro-Russian and a pro-Western course. The first was represented by Alexandr Stoianoglo and other candidates who did not advance to the next round, and the second by Maia Sandu.Although the pro-European candidate won the first round with a significant lead (42.49% of the vote), it should be noted that the following spots, from second to sixth place, were firmly occupied by representatives of the pro-Russian lobby in the country — including Stoianoglo, Usatîi, Vlah, Furtună, and Tarlev.Thus, in the second round, Moldovans had to choose between the two camps and, significantly, the gap was much narrower: 55.35% for Maia Sandu against 44.65% for Alexandr Stoianoglo.Alongside the first round of the elections, another crucial vote took place in the country — a referendum on Moldova’s membership in the European Union. Its outcome enshrined in the Constitution the principle of irreversibility of the chosen course, preventing future governments from attempting to reverse the country’s political direction.Although the pro-European choice and constitutional changes formally won, real unity came mostly from the Moldovan diaspora, 76% of whom supported the move. On the domestic political front, where President Maia Sandu had pushed for this decision, the majority — 54% — still rejected following the pro-European course. Overall, the results stood at 50.35% “For” the constitutional changes and 49.65% “Against.”However, both the current Moldovan president and the European Commission stated that the referendum took place under significant Russian pressure.EU foreign policy spokesman Peter Stano said: “This vote was held under conditions of unprecedented interference and intimidation by Russia and its proxies, who sought to destabilize the democratic process in Moldova.”Moreover, a journalist from the international outlet BBC, who visited a polling station in Transnistria, gathered evidence of voter bribery. He managed to speak with a woman who asked an observer where she could receive the money she had been promised for her vote.It should also be noted that Moldova is a parliamentary republic, meaning the elections scheduled for this Sunday will play a decisive role in determining the country’s political course. Considering the powerful Russian propaganda and direct political influence — which have already affected the referendum results and shaken the ratings of the pro-European president — predicting their outcome is rather difficult.Russia prepares for parliamentary elections – evidence of Kremlin influence and political pressureAccording to Bloomberg, the Kremlin has deployed a multi-layered strategy aimed at undermining trust in President Maia Sandu’s Action and Solidarity Party ahead of the September 28 elections.The article, titled Revealed: Putin’s Secret Plan to Hack Moldova’s Pivotal Election, claims that one of the main aspects of Moscow’s plan is to create the illusion of competitive politics while in reality working to weaken support for Sandu.Specifically, the report states that Russia is recruiting Moldovans abroad — including those in Russia — to vote at polling stations in the EU and other countries, organizing disruptive protests, and conducting a large-scale disinformation campaign on social media.The piece also mentions another familiar Kremlin tactic for destabilizing foreign societies: recruiting “athletic” young men and criminals to stage violent provocations during voting and protests afterward.President Maia Sandu has not ignored the interference in her country’s internal affairs. Following a meeting of Moldova’s Supreme Security Council in June, she said that Russia was investing in several political projects to secure parliamentary seats for its loyal forces. She emphasized that all these groups were coordinated from a single center and largely financed through schemes linked to fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor.Sandu also warned that after the constitutional referendum, Russia would seek to pressure the Moldovan diaspora, which largely voted in favor of the country’s European course.In addition, the Kremlin is expected to reuse tactics it has already employed in Ukraine — cyberattacks on digital infrastructure connected to voting, exploiting the church, and using or bribing convenient “bloggers” and “opinion leaders.”“This should not frighten us, it should mobilize us. Russia’s interference poses serious risks to public order and national security, and most importantly, it could dramatically undermine the country’s sovereignty and our European future,” Sandu stated.Moldovan journalist and political analyst explain how Russia pushes its agendaEspreso spoke with Moldovan analyst and political commentator Nicolae Negru about how Russia is exploiting the internal political situation to turn it in its favor.He emphasized that the Moldovan authorities are currently trying to wage a fight against the Kremlin’s direct interference in the country’s elections by shutting down propaganda TV channels, radio stations, and websites.“The authorities are desperately trying to protect our elections from Russia’s direct interference, fighting fake news, blocking money flows intended to bribe politicians and create voter networks that cast ballots at the instruction of FSB coordinators. How effective this struggle is, we will see after September 28…” the expert said.At the same time, he stressed that Russia allows itself to use direct and cynical methods to intimidate Moldovan voters at the highest level.“The key messages are: the current Moldovan authorities are Russophobes, puppets of the Russophobic West that is pushing Moldova to follow Ukraine’s path into war with Russia; Moldova is violating the rights of Russian speakers, and Russia will not let them be mistreated, and so on,” Nicolae added, noting that Moscow is hardly deviating from the tactics it already used before invading Ukraine.According to the political commentator, Ukraine itself often becomes part of the political speculation of pro-Russian parties — the government is accused of abandoning constitutional neutrality by supporting Ukraine and condemning Russia’s aggression.“And of course, against this backdrop, promises are made about restoring relations with Russia and securing cheap Russian gas,” the expert noted, “while leaving out questions of supply routes and how relations with neighboring Ukraine would be managed.”He pointed out that Ukraine is being used as a “political scarecrow,” while all actions aimed at countering potential Russian aggression — such as strengthening the army and cooperating with the European Union — are portrayed by propaganda as the current government’s desire to enter the war on Ukraine’s side against Russia.“Voters are being frightened with claims that our youth will be used as cannon fodder in the ‘geopolitical interests of other countries,’” emphasized journalist Nicolae Negru.Also, in a comment to Espreso, Moldovan political commentator and public policy and security expert from the WatchDog community Andrei Curararu assessed how the Moldovan authorities are responding to Moscow’s attempts to influence voters compared to previous elections.“As for the upcoming elections in Moldova, compared to the previous presidential elections, I would say we are seeing two trends. On the one hand, the police and prosecutors are acting much faster. Previously, the fight against voter bribery usually took place between the first and second rounds of elections. In these parliamentary elections there is no second round, so everything starts earlier. Now we see almost daily arrests of people organizing this system of voter bribery. Another change compared to past elections is that law enforcement agencies are now targeting the main organizers, rather than starting from the lower levels.”At the same time, he noted, the pro-Russian side has become more technologically advanced. They have moved into the Telegram ecosystem, using an app called Taito, which allows people to sign contracts, log in with selfies and passports, and transfer payments to crypto wallets.“This allows them to distribute payments faster but also exposes people to greater risk. If someone gains access to their crypto wallets, all transactions become transparent. This makes people more dependent on the system, since they are tied to this criminal network,” Curararu explained.When asked about the overall Russian or pro-Russian campaign aimed at influencing elections in Moldova, the expert said it is weak and mostly hidden.“At present, we are observing a very weak campaign — in the sense that there is no real public campaign. The pro-Russian side is focusing on a more covert approach, which includes voter bribery, various forms of disinformation, and new ways of involving churches, teachers, and other local opinion leaders in towns and villages to persuade people to take part in these systems. This time the state is responding more effectively, but the pro-Russian side has also become more sophisticated and better prepared for this campaign,” the political commentator concluded.No exit polls – awaiting the full vote countWe should add that on the day of Moldova’s parliamentary elections, scheduled for September 28, no exit polls will be conducted at polling stations.What is interesting here is the reason why the Moldovan Central Election Commission refused a private company’s request: the CEC has well-founded suspicions regarding the sources of funding for the company Date Inteligente, which applied to conduct post-voting surveys, as well as doubts about the motivation of its leadership to undertake such a complex project as an exit poll.As a result, the outcome of these truly decisive elections in Moldova will only become known once all the ballots have been counted.For the record, 25 parties and several independent candidates are registered for the parliamentary elections, but the main contest will be between President Maia Sandu’s ruling Action and Solidarity Party and the united pro-Russian opposition “Patriotic Bloc”, which includes the Socialist Party of former president Igor Dodon, the Heart of Moldova party, the Future of Moldova party led by Vasile Tarlev, and the Communist Party of former president Vladimir Voronin.