Since the start of the full-scale invasion, we have seen enough evidence that the “aggressive NATO bloc” exists mostly on paper. There has been nothing aggressive there for a long time. Except for the United States, no NATO country is capable of defending itself — the national armies of most countries are neglected, lacking equipment, ammunition, and troops ready to fight in modern warfare.In other words, NATO neither in 2021, when Putin issued his ultimatum, nor now, poses any military threat to Russia.At the same time, however, NATO clearly poses a political threat to Russia. All countries that joined the Alliance have definitively moved out of Russia’s sphere of influence. Therefore, Putin could theoretically hope that through threats or bribery he might tie Ukraine, Georgia, or Azerbaijan to himself. But there is no chance of doing the same with Poland, Latvia, or Finland. Even Hungary and Slovakia are a million times more independent in their relationship with Putin than, for example, Belarus or Kazakhstan.It is worth noting that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began with Russia’s ultimatum to NATO: “Pack your bags and return to the 1997 borders.”And although NATO has indeed never posed any military threat to Russia as a state, the Alliance represents a real threat to Putin’s political regime. Therefore, the dismantling of NATO, or at least a refusal to defend the countries of Eastern Europe admitted after 1997, has been and remains a priority of Putin’s policy. After all, Russian propaganda says this explicitly: Russia is not fighting Ukraine. Russia is fighting NATO on Ukrainian territory. And NATO can only be defeated by striking NATO.2. How is Russia beginning to dismantle NATO, using Poland as an example?It is clear that aggression against NATO would differ from the invasion of Ukraine. The recent attack on Poland showed that the start of a war could be imperceptible — no one would realize it had already begun.We heard the story of drones entering Poland. Reports on the number vary: 10, 19, or even 23. Three of them were shot down, maybe four. However, it turned out the drones were without explosives, came from Belarus, and the Belarusian Ministry of Defense had beforehand warned their Polish counterparts that “unidentified objects are flying your way.” As a result, no one was killed or injured, and destruction was minimal. Later, the Russian Ministry of Defense added that “our drones don’t reach Poland”, hinting that these were either Ukrainian drones or perhaps the Poles launched them against themselves. Overall, they claimed to be ready for constructive cooperation to clarify what actually happened. But is this enough to invoke Article 5 and start a world war?So, a world war was not triggered, but it demonstrated that Russian drones can enter Poland freely and without any risk. And now, a few months later, we see drones, and later missiles, moving freely in the skies over Poland, Latvia, and Romania, constantly flying without fear of being shot down. It is troubling, but still far from enough to start a world war.Then a Shahed hits a rural warehouse with humanitarian aid. No one was killed, only burnt baby diapers scattered across the field. Perhaps even accidentally, as some local politicians suggest. After all, you wouldn’t start a third world war over burnt diapers, would you? Gradually, Eastern Europe is turning into a gray zone, where things constantly fly, explode, and occasionally someone dies. From time to time, military depots or defense enterprises are struck, but the police cannot quickly trace a Russian link. The EU expresses deep concern, the U.S. president writes posts in all caps promising there will be no war while he is in office, and local residents grow accustomed to this new normal.As a result, countries in Eastern Europe become convinced of NATO’s helplessness and the Alliance’s inability to guarantee their security. Membership in NATO begins to seem meaningless, just draining money for militarization. Over one or several election cycles, Russian-funded populists may come to power, steering the population toward leaving NATO and falling under Moscow’s wing. Unlike NATO, Moscow is “capable of ending this horror and restoring a peaceful life.”It is a horrifying scenario. Some might call it conspiratorial. But admit it: just five years ago, a story about two dozen Russian combat drones in Polish airspace would have also seemed like conspiracy nonsense. Today, it is barely seen as an escalation. After all, you wouldn’t start a third world war over a few drones, would you?SourceAbout the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.