1. Relations with Putin have dramatically warmed. Exactly a year ago, the SCO summit took place in Astana. Anyone curious can check the coverage and see how similar it was. The only difference was the absence of Indian Prime Minister Modi. India-Russia rapprochement, however, began long before Trump imposed sanctions. In July 2024, Modi visited Moscow, hugged Putin, and called for an end to the war (his visit came less than a day after a devastating attack on Ukraine). Overall, global South attitudes toward Putin haven’t changed much, yet myths about a major shift keep circulating.2. A China–Russia–Iran–India military-political alliance has formed. Let’s break this myth into two parts. First, no alliance exists between India and China, and the likelihood is minimal. As for the Beijing–Moscow–Tehran axis, is that really news? Even here, however, we are not talking about a military-political alliance – at least not for now. None of the parties wants or is able to fight for the others (China will not fight for Russia, and Russia has already shown in Syria how it fights for allies).We have de facto entered a bipolar world, which we try to measure using Cold War templates. But the main difference from the Cold War is the complete lack of willingness of the powers to fight for their allies.At most, this could mean a quick air operation like the U.S. strike on Iran – and even then, Israel did all the “groundwork” clearing the air defenses. The main geopolitical divide between states isn’t along lines of values, but along the line of “from whom do I buy weapons.” India, for example, can pull a “Turkish move” and buy S-400s from Russia – but then, like Turkey, it won’t deploy them fully.3. Azerbaijan and Armenia were not invited – neither because of India and Pakistan, nor because of the U.S. role in resolving the Karabakh conflict. The main reason is that China views the SCO as its geopolitical project, and strengthening Turkey with two allies at once would make it too powerful. This is particularly important to note, as Ankara is Ukraine's natural ally against Russia in the Black Sea region.4. China–Russia relations have reached a new level. Amid U.S.–Russia economic talks, Beijing has cozied up to Moscow (the Power of Siberia-2 memorandum currently costs China almost nothing, and they even got a discount). However, China still will not sell weapons to Russia.China does not need a Russian victory in the war (nor a Ukrainian one). China wants a weak Russia with a clear center of power. As for Ukraine, China is interested in an independent Ukraine with access to the Black Sea and the ability to trade through this Ukrainian gateway – especially if Ukraine joins the EU.This is, by the way, one of the main reasons Orbán dislikes Ukraine (I repeat: one of them). But the key point is that Russia–China relations have not reached any new level. In Shanghai, Putin secured only that Xi would keep trade relations at the current level and continue acting as a buyer of last resort. However, China’s purchase of oil meant for India cannot last forever; ultimately, it is a complete economic trap for Russia.5. For the first time, Russia, through its top diplomat Ushakov, claimed it is ready to create joint Russian–American–Chinese ventures for Arctic and Northern Sea Route development. This is, of course, unrealistic. If anything happens, there will only be separate Russia–U.S. and Russia–China joint ventures. I have repeatedly said that Putin’s goal is to act as a mediator between Washington and Beijing. Globally, this is impossible, but locally – trading via the sea route – it is entirely feasible. And Russia is steadily moving toward this.There will be only one conclusion: ignoring China is extremely unwise. Peace (a freeze or ceasefire) will likely depend on how U.S.–China negotiations proceed (again, I’ve been saying this for a long time). Still, we firmly believe that China will not appear in this formula and will not become the second pole of the world.SourceAbout the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.