1. No — Putin did not go to China to divide the world into spheres of influence. Nor did he go to negotiate additional support for Russian aggression.Putin and Xi Jinping meet so often (most recently — in Moscow in May) that another meeting in no way changes China’s position on the war in Ukraine. China does not provide direct military assistance to Russia, observes the anti-Russian sanctions, but at the same time supplies civilian equipment and dual-use goods that Russia uses in the war. This meeting does not change the situation.China views the war exclusively in economic terms — as a market. The country has been experiencing an overproduction crisis for several years: it produces more than the domestic market can consume or external markets can absorb. Russia’s isolation after sanctions opened an opportunity for China to dispose of surpluses there (partly in Ukraine as well). That remains the key element in relations between the countries."More broadly, Putin’s global problem is that he started the war precisely to divide the world into spheres of influence. But no one wants to have that conversation with him. Trump may listen to arguments about “who owns Chasiv Yar,” but handing Europe over to Putin — that’s not even up for discussion. China, unlike the U.S. president, theoretically cannot discuss that at all."2. What does China want from Russia, besides a market?The answer was given months ago by China’s foreign minister: Russia must not lose. But that does not mean that China is interested in a Russian victory in Ukraine.A Russian defeat would pose two risks for China: turmoil up to civil war and the disintegration of the state on China’s northern borders, or a regime change with the prospect of a pro-Western successor that would make Russia more “anti-Chinese.”So China frames its interest like this: a Russian defeat is undesirable.3. China’s interests can be summed up in one word — “stability.”"The ideal situation for the Middle Kingdom is that the guns fall silent on the front, while Russia remains isolated. That is precisely what they are pursuing."Moreover, the end of the war would also be advantageous for China. Rebuilding will require people, equipment and technologies that Europe lacks or for which Europe is too slow and expensive. China already has all of these, and it will compete for reconstruction contracts in Ukraine. I would not be surprised if, for that purpose, China even agreed to send military personnel to the line of contact.4. China has still not recognized Crimea, Mariupol, or even the Kuril Islands as Russian.In fact, China doesn’t care whether Chasiv Yar becomes Russian. It has no goal of annexing Donbas to Russia. For Europe, each of these questions is a matter of principle.China does not want to dive into a matter it has not been invited into. For example, a war between Thailand and Cambodia is closer because it happens nearby. Compare how interested Ukraine or Europe is in that war.Therefore it is easier for China to stick to its 12-point Peace Formula (2022) and the empty Friends of Peace plan. At the same time it is increasing Russia’s dependence on itself and winning the trade war with the U.S. by playing the “trump card” of rare earth metals.5. The key question: will China help end the war?The example of North Korea’s nuclear program shows that China either does not know how, or is unable to, influence the military plans of countries dependent on it. After all, China supported all sanctions against North Korea, but that did not stop it from creating a nuclear bomb and developing intercontinental missiles.Theoretically it could limit the transfer of technologies to Russia and wind down military-technical cooperation. But whether it will do so is unknown.In practice, a gradual, controlled Russian exit from the war — one that would preserve internal stability in the country while also not forcing China into direct support of aggression — best matches China’s interests. One would like to hope China will act this way, protecting its right to win contracts to rebuild Ukrainian Kramatorsk, Kharkiv or Odesa.SourceAbout the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament.The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.