I believe Slovakia and Hungary have more to worry about themselves. Here’s why.First, their statements make it sound as if they are giving us fuel for free or doing us some extraordinary favor. In reality, no: traders buy that fuel at market prices with a decent premium (because the Ukrainian market is quite premium).Second, our analysis shows that 10% of the diesel market supplied by Slovak fuel can be replaced four times over — that’s how much logistical reserve we have from other sources. In other words, we can bring not 10%, but 40% of consumption from elsewhere, as we have surplus rail, water, and road transport capacity.Third, will Slovakia or Hungary find buyers as strong as Ukraine? I doubt it. Selling diesel isn’t the problem; the issue is the price.Fourth, the situation could significantly worsen for them. If Russian oil supplies stop, the extra discount that the Kremlin provides to its European agents to block our movement within the EU, NATO, and especially on military aid issues will disappear. They will have to transport oil from the Adriatic at market prices, meaning fuel costs will rise. This translates to the end of the lowest gasoline prices for their voters, cuts to propaganda and party-building budgets, and broader fiscal problems. On top of that, a major fuel buyer is gone…It’s worth noting that disruptions in supply through the Ukrainian branch of the Druzhba pipeline occurred due to drone strikes on the Unecha and Nikolskoye pumping stations. Slovakian and Hungarian volumes are not decisive there; the main flow goes to the Baltic pipeline system, one of the largest channels for Russian oil exports. This is a very significant blow to Russia’s economy.SourceAbout the author. Serhii Kuyun, Director of the consulting company A-95.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.