Pokrovsk direction: the main Russian advance is about 32 sq. km, however the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out a number of successful counterattacks near Dobropillia and recaptured about 12 sq. km.Svatove direction: the Russians advanced another 20 sq. km, in particular they took the village of Zelenyi Hai in the Kharkiv region. Notably, the invading Russian forces reported its capture back in July, but video showing a Russian flag in that settlement was only published recently.It is worth commenting separately on the situation in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The General Staff confirms that Ukrainian forces are fighting in the area of the villages of Zaporizke and Novoheorhiivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region, but stresses that these settlements are not yet occupied. Information claiming that both of these settlements have been occupied by the Russians is not accurate. "The Kremlin is trying to use a breakthrough toward Dnipropetrovsk to increase military-political pressure on the Ukrainian leadership during the negotiation process, including by expanding the area of hostilities."According to the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, there is indeed a threat along the region’s borders, at least from the southeast, and fierce fighting continues. "However, if we talk about a danger to the regional center — the city of Dnipro — there is none. The only threat to local residents is rocket and drone strikes by the aggressor country," he noted.The Russian enemy will try to achieve two key objectives. First — to establish control over those parts of the Donetsk region that remain under Ukrainian control, and also to widen the front, including in the direction of the Dnipropetrovsk region.In addition, the main aim of the offensive is to seize important settlements such as Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Siversk. The enemy is paying particular attention to attempting to take Kostiantynivka during the summer period.The situation on the Kostiantynivka axis remains difficult because Russian forces control the commanding heights in the area of Toretsk and Chasiv Yar. In effect, the city — and not only the city — has its operational rear under flanking fire. That means they can affect logistics, including by using conventional gun artillery. The situation in the area of Toretsk remains difficult.I would also draw attention to increased Russian activity around Lyman. This direction is not widely covered in the information space, but it has military significance.Another direction of increased enemy activity is the Dvorichna area in the Kharkiv region. There the enemy’s area of presence is expanding with a potential threat of further advance along the Oskil toward the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration."Russian forces are operating in several directions at once, but their main goal is to reach Kostiantynivka with the threat of a further breakthrough toward Druzhkivka and Sloviansk."At the same time I note that despite the threats, the prospect of the city’s capture by Russia is not obvious. Kostiantynivka is a large industrial city, significantly bigger than even Bakhmut, let alone Chasiv Yar. The historical prospects of its capture by the occupiers are quite uncertain.At present the occupying forces have run into defensive lines and large cities, which are much harder to capture than the previously occupied Bakhmut. Therefore the cost of a new-stage offensive for Russia will be extremely high.The Russians fully understand that the "fluffy beast" crept up not unexpectedly but rather predictably. They understand that the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration comprises four large industrial cities. Bakhmut cost them 100,000 personnel. A similar situation occurred during the battles for Kurakhove, where Russian losses were, by various estimates, up to 30,000 personnel. Given these huge losses and the current impossibility of replacing them, the Russian Federation is doing everything it can to minimize a similar negative scenario in this direction. But, as we see, very unsuccessfully. According to the Main Intelligence Directorate, in the Pokrovsk direction alone the Russian daily losses are up to 500 personnel. These are medical (evacuated) and irrecoverable losses.However, even if the Russians manage to capture Kostiantynivka, this would not mean strategic control over the region. Kostiantynivka is located in a lowland. Beyond it is Sloviansk, with Mount Karachun — the commanding heights. Plus, since 2014 the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been preparing there.On the approaches to Sloviansk the Ukrainian Defense Forces will have a tactical advantage and any Russian advance in this zone will be extremely difficult. Even in the long term, in my opinion, the capture of this part of Donetsk is unlikely."This agglomeration cannot be occupied even in four years unless there is a negotiated deal involving the surrender of areas controlled by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. I emphasize: there is no historical prospect of capturing these territories."One of the key factors that halted the Russian offensive was the successful operations of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.It was precisely the successful actions of the Ukrainian army that prevented the political component of the Russian offensive from being realized — the creation of buffer zones up to 20 km deep, both on the territory of Kharkiv and Sumy regions, and similar plans regarding the Dnipropetrovsk region. The same applies to the Zaporizhzhia direction, where it was possible to largely stabilize the situation after a number of Russian attempts to improve their tactical position in the area of Mala Tokmachka with the threat of reaching Orikhove. These scenarios were calculated by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.Special attention should be paid to the Donetsk region, where Russia has concentrated its main forces. Besides military objectives, there is also a resource interest.The Russian army's key task is to capture the industrial centers of Donetsk region: Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka. As for Pokrovsk, the Russians are interested in Pokrovsk district as a place of maximum concentration of mineral resources. Shevchenkove is lithium. In addition, Pokrovsk district contains the largest coking coal deposits in Europe, which supplied Ukrainian metallurgy. Bringing the Pokrovske mining administration under Russian control would reduce the output of finished products at metallurgical plants in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. According to experts’ estimates, production could fall from 7.5 to 2.5 million tonnes, which would mean lost revenue for the budget and social tension in territories controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, because metallurgical plants are workplaces for tens of thousands of Ukrainians."After occupying Shevchenkove and Kotlyne, Russia used pressure on Pokrovsk to achieve not so much a military as a political aim — to demonstrate to the United States the ability to reach the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region by military means."Nevertheless, one should not discount the political factor slowing the Russian offensive — even representatives of the occupying country acknowledge it. It is telling that in the Kremlin they regard political pressure from the Trump administration exclusively as a repetition of previous scenarios.Moreover, the Russians cite events from the ATO period as evidence for this conspiracy theory. These are, accordingly, Minsk I and Minsk II. At the moment of the Russians’ greatest advance the Western countries put pressure on the Russian Federation, brought parties to the negotiating table — and the further offensive was effectively halted.However, I note that it was precisely thanks to the successful actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, combined with the international factor, that the Russian command’s plans for so-called "territory exchanges" and an effective ultimatum to the Ukrainian political leadership were disrupted. And the threats of further advance into the industrial districts of the Donetsk region were averted.The situation at the front in recent weeks has created new conditions for the international negotiation process on ending the war in Ukraine.This factor makes it possible already on the international stage, including by our strategic partners, to promote their own vision of ending the war, namely: along the line of contact, and not, as the Russians propose, full control over the territories of the Donetsk region.This is the main conclusion from the events of the past two weeks.Special for EspresoAbout the author. Dmytro Sniehyryov, military expert, co-chair of the Civil Initiative Right Cause.The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.