Russia will not wait for Europe to prepare for a Russian strike. European thinking that Russia will attack sometime around 2030, so we need to rearm by then, is worthless. The right time to strike is at the moment of least readiness. A Russian strike is quite likely before the end of this year.First question. Where to strike? Traditionally, the Baltic states are considered the first target; this is simpler given their small size and the high likelihood of non-intervention by the United States — but this does not give the Kremlin the strategic goal of taking Europe out of the game. This could be achieved by striking Poland. But not through the Suwałki corridor, where Russia is expected.Second question. How to strike? Poland is now actively preparing for “World War II” (this is not a typo), buying tanks and other armored vehicles. They will not be needed. They won’t even have time to leave their hangars. There will be no repeat of the February 2022 style of war.Russian military doctrine envisions the so-called liminal war, well described in David Kilcullen’s book Dragons and Snakes. The essence of this approach is the use of below-threshold methods of warfare, when the enemy does not understand what is happening and cannot decide whether it’s time to respond, or if it’s too early, and if responding, then how and by whom. And at the moment when a decision is finally made to do something — it’s already too late, because it’s over.So, imagine an attack on Poland that combines:mass missile-and-drone attacks on energy facilities, other infrastructure, and logistics (the drones can be painted in blue and yellow and carry inscriptions like “this is for the spilled Ukrainian grain”);cyberattacks on government and infrastructure targets;a navigation collapse due to massive use of electronic warfare;sabotage-terrorist groups; sudden “environmental” and man-made disasters;the unraveling of society (already heated as it is) through social networks;the use of useful idiots from fringe parties;finally, thousands of refugees from the Middle East fleeing west from Belarusian territory, some of them armed.The first consequence will be a blackout of the country not for hours, but for weeks. The second consequence will be a collapse of governance. The third consequence will be ten million Polish refugees fleeing to Germany, causing a collapse of governance there as well. Then a domino effect spreads to Brussels. In principle, the objective is achieved. As a bonus, supply routes to Ukraine via Poland are disrupted.Preparation for the attack is underway actively. The recent arson of military equipment in Germany and Belgium, large-scale blackouts in Spain and the Czech Republic, a fire in telecommunications networks in Poland — all of this is a test of readiness and a search for weak spots.Is it possible to get through to the political leadership of key European countries? Yes, it is possible to achieve an understanding that this is quite a likely scenario. But then there is a paralysis of will, which has simple explanations: preparation will cause panic, and panic will crash the markets. So to speak, Shashlik 2.0.Well, at least we will be ready.I’m writing all this because at least Mykhailo Honchar has already issued a public warning, and I have published the above in several articles in Polish outlets. Since many of my friends are currently at a conference in Rome — please, talk about this. It needs to be in the air.P.S. They say I’m stoking panic. I’ve heard that before — in February 2022.I will answer typical questions here.1. What next? What is the goal? Obviously, Russia does not need Polish territory or direct military control, so there will be no ground operation (which requires considerable resources), and no withdrawal of troops from Ukraine is needed. The consequences of this operation: the collapse of governance, the cessation of the EU’s functioning as a political force, the rise to power of Eurosceptics, the entry of China with support projects, the transformation of the U.S.–EU–China triangle into a flattened triangle: U.S. – (China + RF).2. Why can’t Russia arrange this in Ukraine? Because in 2022 they, first, did not understand this yet, and second, did not know how. And now we are different. Besides, they need something else from Ukraine. Europe, in their plans, should exist but be weak and divided. But Ukraine, in their plans, should not exist.SourceAbout the author. Valerii Pekar, lecturer at Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.