These tactics are driving closer ties between nations targeted by the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions, says Ukrainian military and political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko in his article for minval.az media outlet.Terror as a tool of Russian “diplomacy”At the end of July, Ukraine’s Naftogaz Group signed a deal with SOCAR Energy Ukraine to purchase Azerbaijani natural gas via the Trans-Balkan route through Bulgaria, Romania, and into Ukraine. Within days, in the early hours of August 6, Russian forces launched a massive Shahed-136 drone attack on a gas distribution station in Odesa region — a key link in that route, serving not just Ukraine but also Moldova and Transnistria.On August 7, Romania reported that “contaminated” Azerbaijani crude oil — with dangerously high chlorine levels — had arrived at the Petrobazi refinery via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline. Romanian officials suspected Russian sabotage aimed at undermining Azerbaijan’s reputation as a reliable energy supplier. The following night, Russian strikes hit an oil depot belonging to Azerbaijan’s SOCAR, again in Odesa region.Remarkably, these sites had not been attacked in more than three years of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Nor is it a coincidence, Kovalenko notes, that just before the Naftogaz–SOCAR deal was signed, a Russian missile strike landed near Azerbaijan’s embassy in Kyiv on July 21. Two days earlier, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev had announced plans to take legal action over the 2024 downing of an AZAL passenger jet — allegedly targeted by a Russian Pantsir-S1 system.And finally — the signing in Washington between Azerbaijan and Armenia, mediated by the United States, of key bilateral and trilateral agreements, something Russia has failed to arrange or achieve since 2020. Apparently, at least in part because the Kremlin had no interest in such agreements between the parties and sought to drive the entire process into a dead end, keeping tensions in the region high. Hybrid escalation and diplomatic pushbackOn July 10, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev held a phone call prompted by the strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure used to transport Azerbaijani energy supplies. Kovalenko calls it a clear example of modern, civilized diplomacy in the face of hybrid warfare.Ukraine and Azerbaijan, he argues, are now two of Russia’s biggest irritants. Ukraine’s resistance has dragged Moscow into a costly, grinding war, while Azerbaijan is rising as a regional power with an independent foreign policy — a stance the Kremlin finds intolerable. Unable to directly attack Azerbaijan due to its overextended military, Russia resorts to sabotage and indirect strikes.Kovalenko also notes that Baku is reportedly considering lifting its arms embargo on Ukraine — a move that could significantly bolster Kyiv’s defense. While no official decision has been announced, Azerbaijan has already sent $2 million in humanitarian aid to support Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.Turkey could also play a role in strengthening Ukraine’s southern defenses, possibly supplying anti-aircraft systems like the Bofors 40mm, Oerlikon 35mm, Rheinmetall 20mm, or M45 Quadmount to counter Shahed drones.Shifting geopoliticsZelenskyy and Aliyev’s coordinated stance against Russian terror underscores the durability of their countries’ partnership. Kovalenko describes it as part of a broader geopolitical shift in which the Caspian and Black Seas are becoming interconnected strategic spaces, and regional alliances are evolving into intercontinental ones. Russia, in this new order, is increasingly an outsider — its aggression against former Soviet republics a sign of waning influence.Kovalenko concludes that Moscow will not abandon its aggressive policies toward either Ukraine or Azerbaijan, but its reliance on terror brings it closer to a “point of no return,” where it risks finding itself isolated even at the regional level.