According to Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko, this deployment signals a potential shift in Russia’s drone warfare strategy, and while it’s too early to say whether these rocket-propelled drones will become a regular threat, it’s important to assess the intent and implications now. Likely origin: Iranian Shahed-238While official sources haven’t confirmed the exact model, Kovalenko believes the drones are likely a localized Russian version of Iran’s Shahed-238, first unveiled in November 2023. That drone came in several versions—some without a seeker, others with electro-optical or radar-guided systems. It was reportedly capable of reaching speeds up to 550 km/h (about 340 mph), sparking concerns even then about the effectiveness of Ukraine’s mobile air defense teams, which typically rely on light arms.After a brief appearance in early 2024, the Shahed-238 seemed to vanish—until now. Kovalenko points out that a similar drone was shot down over Ukraine in January, after which discussion about this threat faded from public discourse.Over the past year, Russian interest in jet-powered drones had largely cooled, aside from the so-called “Banderol,” which turned out to be more of an air-launched missile than a true drone. That changed on July 30, when Russia suddenly deployed eight rocket-powered drones in a single night.Why now? Why rocket drones?Kovalenko suggests the Russians may be testing this new system to evaluate how well it performs against air-defense drones. Unlike standard Shahed drones, rocket-powered UAVs are two to three times faster, allowing them to bypass mobile fire teams more easily and reducing interception time.He argues that the launch was likely experimental—designed to probe how effectively Ukrainian anti-aircraft dronescan intercept these faster-moving threats. It also fits with Russia’s broader efforts to adapt its tactics and modernize Shahed-type drones.However, Kovalenko cautions that speed is the only major advantage of jet-powered drones. In nearly every other metric, they fall short.The drawbacks of rocket-powered dronesThe downsides are significant. Because of their propulsion system, these drones are more expensive, burn far more fuel, and have a shorter range than the propeller-driven Shahed-136. That means they are limited to short- or medium-range missions and aren’t capable of flying deep into Ukrainian airspace.Their heat signatures are also much more visible, making them easier targets for portable air-defense systems (MANPADS). Additionally, they are less maneuverable—especially if designed like the flying-wing Shahed-238. Complex turns or evasive patterns require greater speed reduction, further exposing them to interception.What to expectWhile rocket-powered drones aren’t a “wonder weapon,” Kovalenko says they can play a meaningful role in specific scenarios: breaking through front-line defenses, disrupting mobile air-defense units, or forcing Ukraine to waste expensive missiles on low-cost threats. He believes the July 30 strike may have tested both drone effectiveness and how well they could integrate with traditional Shahed kamikaze drones and decoys.ConclusionRocket-powered drones come with both strengths and weaknesses. According to Kovalenko, they are not game-changers, and Ukrainian air defenses can counter them. But due to their speed and potential to overwhelm defenses when used in mixed formations, Russia may continue to test and expand their use in future attacks.Ukraine’s air defense forces must prepare for this evolving threat, especially as Russia experiments with new tactics aimed at exhausting Ukrainian interception capabilities.