The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has recorded record growth in shadow capital outflows: in the first quarter of 2025, US$14.7 billion in so-called "net errors and omissions" reportedly accumulated in the balance of payments.

Source: The Moscow Times

Details: These "net errors" are a statistical category that often includes opaque currency transactions not accounted for in other balance sheet items.

The media outlet reports that this is one of the highest figures in history – the previous record was set in 2006 (US$11.2 billion). After the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine, this figure began to grow again: US$6.1 billion in 2022 and over US$9 billion in 2023 and 2024.

A significant portion of export revenues remains abroad, either due to payment difficulties or to facilitate import payments. According to the Central Bank, Russian residents increased their foreign assets by US$66.8 billion in 2024 alone, of which US$46.4 billion was accounted for by "other investments".

Against the backdrop of sanctions and the withdrawal of Western businesses from the country, foreign direct investment in Russia has fallen by US$281 billion in three years. The overall financial account balance since the beginning of 2022 is negative US$333 billion.

What does this mean? When money is being withdrawn from the country en masse through opaque channels, it means that businesses and citizens do not trust their country’s economic stability and fear sanctions, repression, or future restrictions.

Background:

• The rouble exchange rate has reached its highest level since May 2023, rising to 80.22 roubles per dollar on the domestic market.
• The number of credit card debtors in Russia is growing rapidly. Since the beginning of 2025, more than 2.35 million bank customers have defaulted on payments for more than 30 days.

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