Russia is threatened with a fuel shortage

The Russian economy could face a new blow. Amid falling global oil prices, Western sanctions and Ukrainian attacks, the Kremlin is urgently calling a meeting due to an alarming decline in the volume of oil products transported within the country.

The Russian government is concerned about a possible fuel shortage on the domestic market, particularly during the critical planting season for the agricultural sector.

As explained by the SZRU, the decrease in fuel supplies within the country was the result of a decline in the profitability of oil refineries (REFs) — a key element of Russia's energy chain.

The decrease in domestic oil transportation is due to the increase in oil pumping tariffs. The intelligence noted that since January 1, 2025, they have increased by 9.9%, and this directly affected the margins of the domestic market.

Volumes also decreased due to the increase in excise taxes: AI-95 gasoline rose to $212.8 per ton, diesel to $150.9. As explained in the intelligence, this led to the fact that the domestic market became less attractive for manufacturers, who are increasingly focusing on exports or reducing production.

Domestic oil transportation was also affected by a decrease in damping payments aimed at maintaining domestic fuel prices. Over the first four months of 2025, the volume of these subsidies decreased by more than 2.5 times — from $ 1.9 billion in January to $ 780 million in April. This means, the SZRU noted, that state support for oil refiners is rapidly weakening.

In addition, the decline in domestic oil transportation is due to logistical difficulties: a shortage of rolling stock and a decrease in the priority of oil transportation on Russian railways. According to intelligence, more than 60% of fuel is transported not by pipelines, but by rail and road transport, which creates an additional burden on critical infrastructure.

As of May 2025, a number of refineries are already reducing their capacity, and further deepening of the crisis may lead to temporary or permanent closure of enterprises.

An energy crisis in Russia against the backdrop of budget depletion is no longer a future scenario, but a risk that is rapidly coming true.

If the current dynamics continue, Moscow could face the most serious systemic challenge to the energy vertical since the collapse of the USSR. Combined with sanctions pressure, loss of sales markets, and military spending, this creates real prerequisites for the collapse of a key pillar of the Russian economy — the oil and gas sector.