Michael Kofman: "Russians' negotiating position is actually a lot weaker than it looks"
www.pravda.com.ua
Thu, 13 Feb 2025 11:09:28 +0200
The worstcase scenarios for 2024 didnt take place, the front didnt collapse.
There wasnt a major Russian breakthrough anywhere along the front line.
The Russian military wasnt able to take any of the most significant cities.
Some of the Russian offensive like the Kharkiv offensive, failed visibly.
We still dont know how the winter will turn out.
And looking at Ukrainian critical infrastructure because theres still quite a bit of winter to go.
But so far, its also not been the worstcase scenario when we look at the damage Russia inflicted on Ukraines power generation capacity.
On the other hand, I do think that the year very much went in the wrong direction.
And I think the wars been on a negative trajectory since about the fall of 2023, to be honest with you.
I think the bestcase scenarios didnt take place either, said the guest of the new episode of the UnSafe Country podcast.
But I think were entering 2025 with Ukraine in a very difficult position.
There are some very glaring structural issues in terms of Ukraines manpower, mobilization, and force management decisions that were made last year, that could have been a lot better.
And if we look at the overall funding situation and prospects for sustained Western support, Ukraine certainly faces an uncertain future this year.
What scenarios might unfold in Ukraine in 2025, and which of last years forecasts have come true In the new episode of unSafe Country podcast, its permanent host Alina Frolova speaks with a military analyst Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the Russia and Eurasia Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The conversation covers the current situation in Ukraine and the state of the Russian military, potential negotiations, Moskovs position and security guarantees for Ukraine, the economic situation in Russia and its impact on ending the war, as well as possible scenarios for 2025.
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