Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that Russian forces are preparing to encircle the town of Kupiansk and cross the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast, and continue their "creeping advances" to please Russian ruler Vladimir Putin, who is not going to end the war.

Source : ISW

Details : Analysts noted that Russian troops were expanding their positions north of Kupiansk as part of a long-term operational effort to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the eastern (left) bank of the Oskil River.

The Russians have recently intensified their offensive operations north of Kupiansk, particularly near Dvorichna, as part of a broader intensification on the Kupiansk, Borova and Lyman fronts.

Geolocation data released on 30 and 31 January indicates that Russian forces have recently made minor advances north of Dvorichna (north of Kupiansk and on the western bank of the Oskil River), to the southern outskirts of Zakhidne (southwest of Dvorichna) and north along the western bank of the Oskil River northwest of Novomlynsk (northeast of Dvorichna).

Russian forces are also using mechanised attacks to expand their positions north of Kupiansk.

Units of the 6th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation (Leningrad Military District) are reportedly playing a leading role in Russian efforts to expand their positions north of Kupiansk. 

Quote : "The tempo of Russian offensive operations along this sector of the front was generally much lower than elsewhere in eastern Ukraine throughout most of 2024 and Russian units in the area are likely well-rested and prepared to begin a months-long campaign to envelop Kupiansk."

Details : The Russians do not appear to have significant unused reserves that could be devoted to these efforts, but the Russian military command may be prepared to redeploy forward units from other parts of the front to take advantage of any significant tactical advantages near Dvorichna and Kupiansk.

Units of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (Moscow Military District) are also involved in the encirclement of Kupiansk and are attempting to advance east of Kupiansk and expand the Russian advance south of Kupiansk near Kruhliakivka, likely to prepare for an offensive south of Kupiansk, crossing the Oskil River and pressing on Borova.

Quote : "The Russian military command has shown that it is willing to commit to operations that could take six to nine months to conclude. Russian commanders are likely operating under the assumption or direct knowledge that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intend to end the war in Ukraine in the near future."

Details : Russian troops are gradually working to push Ukrainian forces out of the eastern bank of the Oskil River from winter 2023-2024, and Russian military commanders have previously deprioritised the Kupiansk-Borova Lyman line in favour of other operational efforts in Ukraine.

Quote : "The envelopment of Kupiansk will almost certainly be a months-long effort that requires Russian forces to close a gap 25 to 30 kilometers wide while also fording and maintaining logistics across the Oskil River, seizing small settlements in their path, and repelling Ukrainian counterattacks. 

Russian commanders do not seem concerned about the speed or consistency of their advances in Ukraine, likely because they believe that the war will drag on until Russia militarily defeats Ukraine."

Details : Experts reiterated that Putin had previously formulated a theory of "victory" that assumes that the Russian military will be able to continue its gradual, creeping advance in Ukraine indefinitely, and has repeatedly indicated that he is not interested in resolving the war on any terms other than those he dictates.

Quote : "Putin's commanders are internalising these statements and likely coming to the logical conclusion that Putin has no interest in ending the war and intends to continue fighting until he accomplishes his objectives in Ukraine, which are the toppling of the current Ukrainian government and the categorical destruction of the Ukrainian military."

Details : Analysts pointed out that Russia's ability to continue the slow encirclement of settlements, rather than attempting a rapid mechanised manoeuvre that breaks through the Ukrainian defence line and quickly achieves operationally significant gains, in the medium to long term depends on Russia's ability to supply large numbers of personnel and materiel to support these operations.

In addition, Russian forces are also stepping up their efforts to close the remaining Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove.

Quote : "Russian forces likely aim to close or collapse the Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove to free up Russian forces operating in the area for offensive operations elsewhere, such as advances towards the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border from either the Pokrovsk direction or the Velyka Novosilka direction, as ISW has previously assessed."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 31 January : 

• The United Kingdom (UK), Finland, and Czechia announced several immediate and longer-term military assistance packages for Ukraine on 31 January.
• Russian forces are expanding their salient north of Kupiansk as part of long-term operational efforts to push Ukrainian forces from the east (left) bank of the Oskil River.
• Elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army (CAA) (Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly leading the Russian effort to expand the salient north of Kupiansk.
• Elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (GTA) (Moscow Military District [MMD]) are also participating in the envelopment of Kupiansk and are attempting to advance east of Kupiansk and to expand the Russian salient south of Kupiansk near Kruhliakivka likely in order to prepare for advances south of Kupiansk, cross the Oskil River, and pressure Borova.
• Russian forces appear to be developing and disseminating a doctrinal method for advances throughout the theatre that aims to conduct slow envelopments of frontline towns and settlements at a scale that is reasonable for Russian forces to conclude before culminating.
• The Russian military command has shown that it is willing to commit to operations that could take six to nine months to conclude. Russian commanders are likely operating under the assumption or direct knowledge that Russian leader Vladimir Putin does not intend to end the war in Ukraine in the near future.
• This Russian offensive method is bringing about slow operational maneuver on the battlefield, but these envelopments require significant planning, foresight, manpower, and equipment and do not restore rapid, mechanized maneuver to the battlefield.
• Russian forces are also intensifying their efforts to close the remaining Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove.
• Moldovan and Transnistrian authorities agreed to accept a European Union (EU) package that includes funding for gas purchases for Transnistria, further limiting Russia’s economic influence over the pro-Russian breakaway republic.
• Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast amid continued strikes against Russian energy and defence industrial infrastructure.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• Western and Ukrainian officials continue to report that North Korean forces have withdrawn from frontline positions in Kursk Oblast.

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