The analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point out that Russia's attempts to de facto annex Belarus pose strategic risks to the United States, NATO and Ukraine.

Source: ISW

Quote from ISW:"Moscow’s effort to de facto annex Belarus through the Union State framework, while incomplete, has already achieved significant gains, requiring NATO to reevaluate the implications of Russia’s growing control over Belarus and the capabilities and resources Russia can leverage against the United States, NATO, and Ukraine as a result."

Details:The analysts note that Belarus is not just an ally of Russia. The Kremlin is turning Belarus into a strategic partner that helps Russia spread its power worldwide.

They add that the Kremlin will use its recent but deep-rooted gains in Belarus to offset the costs of Russia's long war against Ukraine, accelerate Russia's recovery from the war in Ukraine, and help Russia prepare for future wars faster than it could do on its own.

Quote from ISW: "Policymakers must start planning for a future in which Belarus is not only a captive nation but also effectively an extension of the Russian Federation."

Details: Experts emphasise that Russia is trying to take control of all areas of the neighbouring state's governance.

In this regard, three key areas of Russian efforts are considered: the Kremlin's efforts aimed at military, political and economic integration of Russia and Belarus.

Quote from ISW: "The Kremlin’s desired suite of integration measures with Belarus is so broad and comprehensive in many respects that it is harder to determine what Moscow will not control in Belarus if Moscow succeeds than to list what Moscow will control."

Details: ISW said that while Russia has not yet completed its attempt to de facto annex Belarus, it has already reached stages that pose a threat to the security of the United States, NATO, and Ukraine, as well as to the continued existence of Belarus as a sovereign state.

Quote from ISW:"Russia does not need to achieve additional integration success in Belarus to threaten the West. Russia's existing set of military, political, and economic integration gains in Belarus since 2020 already poses a threat to the West that policymakers should take into account."

Why this is important : Russia has been using the territory of Belarus throughout the full-scale invasion: the Russian military invaded Ukraine, among other things, from the territory of Belarus, and Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukraine with missiles from the territory of Belarus.

Putin used the territory of Belarus for the training and treatment of Russian soldiers, as well as for the transfer of weapons and equipment.

It is on the territories of Belarus bordering Ukraine and Poland that Russia conducts joint military exercises with the Belarusian army, including those involving the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, among other things, explained his full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the fact that Ukraine was supposedly preparing to attack Russia. Alexander Lukashenko, the self-proclaimed Belarusian President, echoed Putin’s words and even promised to show some maps of where the attack was being prepared, but he never did.

Instead, during the more than two years of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenko has repeatedly stated that NATO could supposedly attack Belarus. It is supposedly precisely because of this imaginary threat that Belarus conducts numerous military exercises near the borders of other countries and has even deployed Russian nuclear weapons on its territory.  

In December 2024, Lukashenko stated that he expects Belarus to initially receive 10 Oreshnik missile systems from Russia, but their number can be increased if Russia so wishes.

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