Russian forces are currently not showing any activity that would indicate preparations for a "major" offensive on Zaporizhzhia. Most of the Russians’ active operations remain within Donetsk Oblast.

Source: Ukrainian analytical project DeepState

Details: Analysts noted that spreading reports of an impending Russian offensive on Zaporizhzhia mislead the public and cause unnecessary concern.

Quote: "For about a month, the public has been hearing about a 'major' offensive on Zaporizhzhia, supposedly set to start near the city of Vasylivka, specifically in the town of Kamianske. It’s unclear what this statement is based on, as we don’t see significant accumulation of forces around Vasylivka as described.

There are two airborne assault divisions in the area, one of which was partially redeployed elsewhere, along with a new regiment made up of disparate forces. Currently, there’s no major activity around the town of Kamianske. If something does happen, it’s better to prepare physically rather than alarm the residents of Zaporizhzhia with daily claims. The situation in the village of Robotyne also remains unchanged, with no signs of escalation."

Details: DeepState also pointed out that reports of a potential offensive on Zaporizhzhia often reference enemy activities near the village of Huliaipole.

Quote: "These events are being linked due to a lack of geographical knowledge, confusing Russian movements around the villages of Rivnopil and Novodarivka, and attempts to advance from Staromaiorske towards Makarivka. Firstly, Rivnopil and Makarivka are located in Donetsk Oblast, not the south. Secondly, these settlements are nowhere near Huliaipole, so mentioning them is puzzling. Thirdly, referencing Zaporizhzhia Oblast in this context makes little sense, even though it borders Rivnopil. This does not justify claims of a 'Zaporizhzhia offensive'." 

Background: On 11 November, Russian forces intensified assaults on Ukrainian positions around Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast, advancing from the north, south and east in an effort to encircle the city.

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