Russian units deployed in Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast may be preparing sabotage activities in the Baltic states and Poland.

Source : a major study conducted by the Lithuanian broadcaster LRT, together with investigative journalists from Poland and Estonia

Details : This study analyses current and potential threats from Russia and Belarus.

One of the journalists' anonymous sources, a Lithuanian intelligence source, said that Russian special forces in Kaliningrad Oblast and units affiliated with the secret services are very likely involved in planning and carrying out various sabotage activities in the region.  

The source said that "the desired effect is achieved relatively cheaply". 

"Attacks are usually carried out by people recruited through social media. Their capabilities are very limited, and they focus on smaller but more easily accessible targets. The immediate impact of each attack is quite small, but the overall impact is determined by the number of attacks and the reaction to them in society. These are unsuccessful attempts to sow a sense of instability and insecurity in Western societies and undermine support for Ukraine," the source said. 

The article mentioned a series of detentions in Poland due to past incidents involving possible preparations for sabotage, all of which could possibly have a Russian trail.

Among the Russian units in Kaliningrad, the 390th (formerly 561st) Naval Reconnaissance Station of the Baltic Fleet may be the most dangerous. Its base is located in Parusnoye near the Russian naval base in Baltiysk. Recent reports indicate that there are up to 120 servicemen there, including personnel.

These special units are being trained to carry out missions against NATO countries on the Baltic Sea coast, in particular against strategic targets in Lithuania and Poland. Potential targets could include, for example, the strategic Lithuanian port of Klaipėda, which is irreplaceable in NATO's logistics for operations in the region. 

One of the journalists' anonymous sources said that in the event of a hypothetical Russian attack on NATO, "this sabotage group will do its job". 

Background : 

• Earlier, German media reported that Russian vessels could be collecting data on critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.
• Recently, intelligence agencies from several countries have warned of the risk of Russian sabotage at Norwegian energy facilities.

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