With defence spending booming, China onside and murky deals filling gaps left by sanctions, the Kremlin believes it can weather a damaged rouble, but will Russians stomach welfare cuts if they come?

• The ‘dark fleet’ delivering Russia’s oil

As the Kremlin took urgent measures to stabilise the plummeting rouble last week, one thing became clear: rampant spending on its war machine and social welfare programmes could not go on for ever. Few observers believe the Russian economy is in danger of imminent collapse. But it has reached a point, they say, where the Kremlin may have to weigh the cost of spending trillions of roubles on its war with Ukraine, and withstanding unprecedented sanctions, while maintaining prewar levels of public spending.

“In the grand scheme of things, as long as Russia continues to spend so madly – both war spending and on expensive imports – the rouble is not going to improve fundamentally,” said Alexey Eremenko, associate director at consultancy Control Risks. “There’s a structural issue underlying it all … A good question is whether we are at the point yet where the Kremlin has to seriously slash war spending or accept serious damage to the public welfare.”