Russian government admits serious budget problems

What is important to understand is that in the baseline forecast, the deficit in 2042 will increase from the expected 5.7 trillion rubles this year (2.6% of GDP) to 21.6 trillion (2.9% of the GDP forecast for 2042).

However, a conservative forecast predicts a figure of 54.7 trillion — that is, already 8.4% of GDP.

According to the Russian government's projects, expenditures will increase almost threefold in the baseline scenario — from 42.8 trillion in 2025 to 125.8 trillion (17% of GDP) in 2042. In the conservative scenario, they will increase to 144.5 trillion (22.2% of GDP).

In addition, it is projected that budget revenues will grow by an average of 2.1% annually, including oil and gas revenues by 3%.

The baseline scenario assumes that in 2042 revenues will amount to 104.1 trillion rubles (14.1% of GDP), while the conservative scenario assumes 89.9 trillion (13.8% of GDP).

It is also worth noting that oil and gas revenues will decline from the current 4% to 1.9% of GDP.