The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.The United States lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers on Saturday, officially crediting the release of 123 political prisoners by the Lukashenko regime. However, the analyst warns that Ukraine and Europe should be wary of what appears to be a far more complex geopolitical transaction with dangerous implications.The sudden American focus on Belarusian political detainees—most of them Belarusian citizens rather than Americans—raises immediate questions about Washington's true motivations, especially given the administration's apparent indifference to hundreds of pro-American Afghans currently held in Taliban prisons. This inconsistency suggests the prisoner release may simply provide political cover for a deeper arrangement.Recent diplomatic activity reveals an intricate pattern connecting Belarus, Venezuela, and Russia. On November 25, Lukashenko unexpectedly met with Venezuela's ambassador to Russia, publicly stating that embattled leader Nicolás Maduro would always be welcome in Belarus—a clear signal of willingness to provide safe haven for the Venezuelan dictator. The ambassador was immediately summoned back to Venezuela for direct consultations with Maduro the following day.Just over two weeks later, on December 11, Lukashenko held a second meeting with the Venezuelan ambassador. That same evening, Putin called Maduro in what was officially described as expressing "support," though the timing suggests the call was actually coordinating arrangements discussed between the ambassador and Lukashenko.The next day, December 12, U.S. Special Representative Cole met with Lukashenko in Minsk. While officially focused on prisoner releases, the meeting also addressed Venezuela. This raises a critical question: why would one of the world's leading powers discuss geopolitical issues about Venezuela with a country like Belarus—unless Belarus has direct involvement in ongoing processes?At his press conference, Lukashenko offered a revealing comment: "We have many issues. The world is changing very rapidly, new problems are emerging that we must discuss. And perhaps resolve some issues." The final phrase appears to reference the Maduro situation.One day later, on December 13, the U.S. lifted sanctions on Belarusian fertilizers.For Ukraine and Europe, three concerning factors emerge from this sequence:First, the Lukashenko regime cannot independently guarantee Maduro's security when its own survival depends on external support from the Kremlin.Second, Belarus's budget is 65 percent dependent on Russia and currently faces a severe crisis. The regime cannot conduct such active contacts with Americans without Kremlin coordination.Third, the timing is striking: while Maduro officially requested Russian military support in late October, by November and December—coinciding with activity by Kushner and Dmitriev—Putin's only action was sending a letter of support.Ukraine and Europe should be cautious, as the evidence strongly suggests an undisclosed component of separate U.S.-Kremlin negotiations. These arrangements may include American pressure on Ukraine in exchange for Kremlin services—brokered through Lukashenko—regarding Maduro, and potentially the transfer of Lukoil and Rosneft foreign assets to American control.