The publication of conversations between Putin's advisor Yuri Ushakov, special envoy Kirill Dmitriev, and businessman Steve Witkoff (who is close to Trump) is not just another "leak." It is a moment of truth for the diplomatic process surrounding the war in Ukraine.Here are the 5 most likely scenarios for how events could unfold:1. The curtailment of informal initiativesThe scandal has undermined trust, both between the states and among the negotiators.Ukraine declares: "No decisions without Kyiv."Informal contacts are being frozen.Witkoff will most likely be removed from the negotiation process.2. A restructuring of the negotiation architectureTo avoid further toxicity, the U.S. may officially appoint a new special representative (like Kurt Volker in the past) — a role already being eyed by the new special appointee Dan Driscoll (from Vice President J.D. Vance's team).The team will be replaced, and clear, official frameworks will be established.Ukraine returns to the center of the process.3. Russia uses the leak as an information weaponThe Kremlin launches propaganda: "Even the U.S. wants a compromise, but Ukraine is stalling."This is spread through the UN, media, and "neutral" states.The goal is to pressure Ukraine's allies and create a rift.4. An internal American scandalWitkoff is close to Trump. The scandal will be used in the election campaign.Congressional hearings will begin, with questions directed at the State Department.Ukraine risks being drawn into someone else's political struggle.5. Ukraine seizes the initiativeThe scandal is an opportunity to declare: "Peace initiatives only with our participation."The proposal involves expanding the Peace Formula and establishing clear principles regarding security guarantees.This means regaining control over the diplomatic agenda. To do this, it's necessary to consider who will represent Ukraine in the U.S., and whether it is necessary to send Andriy Yermak there, who is not very welcome."But the main question on everyone's mind right now is: Whose game was this, after all?'1. The Russian game:To disrupt negotiations, discredit the U.S., and divide the allies.To launch a narrative that "the West itself wants to negotiate."2. The American game:To remove a toxic figure (Witkoff) and stop backroom deals.To reboot the process by clearing the air with a scandal.Short conclusion:The old negotiation format is dead.A restructuring is beginning, where new people (Driscoll) and new rules will appear on the negotiation track.Ukraine has a unique chance to become an initiator, not just a participant.But there is also bad news — the end of the war is once again being delayed.About the author: Viktor Shlinchak, head of the board of the Institute of World Politics.The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.