The New York Times reported the information.In a closed-door meeting with Western diplomats in Kyiv last week, U.S. Army Secretary Daniel P. Driscoll delivered an alarming assessment: Russia is now producing missiles faster than it can fire them, amassing a growing arsenal of long-range weaponry that poses an escalating threat to Ukraine and potentially beyond its borders.For years, Moscow launched missiles into Ukraine at roughly the same pace it manufactured them. But that dynamic has shifted dramatically, Driscoll told the assembled diplomats, according to two Western officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.The message was unmistakable: a peace settlement is urgently needed before Russia's expanding missile stockpile can deliver a devastating blow to Ukraine or threaten other European nations.Western officials who heard Driscoll's presentation called the Russian buildup deeply concerning and said his warning had made a significant impact. However, the use of Russia's military expansion as leverage to sell a peace deal widely viewed as unfavorable to Ukraine marks a striking departure from traditional U.S. diplomatic posture, which would typically condemn such weapons accumulation rather than cite it as justification for concessions to an aggressor.The Trump administration maintains that Russia holds the upper hand in the conflict and that Ukraine should accept a settlement quickly. This assessment is supported by Ukrainian military intelligence and independent analysts' calculations showing a fundamental shift in Russian arms production capacity.By June, Russia had expanded its industrial capacity to produce approximately 2,900 cruise and ballistic missiles annually, according to Ukraine's military intelligence agency. The figure includes Iskander ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, Kalibr cruise missiles, and repurposed anti-ship missiles.Ukrainian Air Force data analyzed by The Times shows Russia launched 2,061 cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukraine last year and is on track to fire slightly more this year. Yet even this increased rate of fire leaves Moscow with hundreds of additional missiles in reserve."The launches are not keeping up with production," said Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert at the University of Oslo. Russia could be stockpiling weapons for contingencies beyond Ukraine or to increase pressure on Kyiv, he noted.The trend is particularly alarming because ballistic missiles are already being fired at Ukraine faster than the country can secure interceptors capable of shooting them down—American Patriots and French-Italian SAMP/T systems. Hoffmann warned that this points toward a moment when Ukraine could run out of defenses to protect cities like Kyiv.Analysts say Russia could use its stockpile to devastate Ukraine's already crippled electrical infrastructure, deplete the country's dwindling air defense capabilities, or wield the threat of attacks against other European nations.The assessment represents a reversal from just a year ago. Evidence that Moscow was firing missiles as quickly as it built them came from a July 2024 strike on a Kyiv children's hospital, where investigators found missile components manufactured just months earlier.Driscoll, an ally of Vice President JD Vance who has emerged as an unlikely diplomatic leader, is preparing to return to Kyiv this week for further negotiations on a peace proposal that has undergone significant revisions after Ukrainian and European resistance.This week, as peace talks appeared to gain momentum, Russia unleashed a deadly barrage of ballistic missiles and drones on Kyiv—echoing a September pattern when Moscow responded to failed negotiations with strikes on Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers building and an American factory in western Ukraine.Yet Hoffmann cautioned that Russia's missile stocks would likely surge even higher if fighting stopped. "If Russia gets away victoriously from this war, they might feel very adventurous in the future and have a massive stockpile of long-range armaments," he said.On Sunday, November 23, 2025, in Geneva, Switzerland, the Ukrainian and American delegations held discussions on the 28 points of the so-called Witkoff-Dmitriev peace plan, which was drafted with the Kremlin's involvement.On Tuesday, November 25, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the Russian and Ukrainian sides are very close to an agreement to end the war.