1. No peace plan existsThe document that everyone perceived as the "U.S. plan" is actually a diplomatic non-paper—a working draft listing topics on which the parties are supposed to find compromises. It was not a plan, not an agreed-upon document, and was not meant to be leaked to the press.After the draft was leaked to the media, the U.S. administration agreed to treat it as a "plan," but it appears no one in the White House has read it: the American president stated directly that the U.S. does not insist on any of its points.It was clear that no one expected Ukraine to sign it. The document has so many flaws, errors, and poorly written formulations that it requires substantial rewriting. But to speed up the process, the draft was handed to Zelenskyy during a visit by American generals, and Trump and Rubio publicly declared: "this is our plan now, we are working with it."2. The initial positions align with the Kremlin's demands by about 85%The Americans are not hiding this: the more "pro-Ukrainian" the agreement becomes, the less chance Putin will sign it. The U.S. operates on the assumption that the war will not end without an agreement with Putin. After all, even a ceasefire along the front line without an agreement will not stop Russian strikes on cities. This would turn the war into an endless one—with obvious consequences for Ukraine and Europe."Therefore, the U.S. logic is simple: Ukraine must make the compromises, because otherwise, there will be no deal. What Russia will agree to—no one yet understands."3. What could compel Putin to sign an agreementThere are three main levers. First, concessions from the West. This explains the mentions in the draft about Russia's return to the G8, partial recognition of certain annexed Ukrainian territories as Russian, amnesty for war crimes, and the lifting of some sanctions.Second, economic pressure. U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as the discussion around Lindsey Graham's bill to make sanctions permanent, are a signal that Washington intends to increase pressure, not reduce it.Third, China. Without Chinese economic support, Russia cannot wage war. And for the first time during the war, China mentioned Ukraine as a separate point in the Foreign Ministry's press release after the conversation between Xi and Trump. Beijing supports "efforts to achieve peace" but insists that the agreement must eliminate "all root causes of the conflict"—a formula that everyone interprets in their own way. Previously, our country was only mentioned in passing.Whether this will yield results is an open question. But there is a sense that for Putin, this is one of the last opportunities to end the war on more or less acceptable terms for him. The U.S. is now entering an election cycle, and the chance for greater concessions may not come again."4. Will Putin sign the agreement? There is a possibility, but it is very low. Putin is convinced that he is winning the war, and victors are not stopped by peace agreements. They dictate the terms themselves. This has been the logic of all the Russian dictator's ultimatums in recent years."Negotiations on the revised version of the agreement are ongoing, but its current contents are unknown. Lower-ranking Russian officials who received the edited version today have already called it non-viable. The Kremlin's official statements will likely be similar. All of this suggests that the chances of ending the war with this agreement are not very high.Apparently, our government understands this as well, which is why Zelenskyy says that Ukraine's task in this process is to "preserve a key ally." That is, to calmly and technically work through the text. Then, the U.S. will pass it to Moscow—and there, with a very high probability, it will die.SourceAbout the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Ukrainian lawmaker.The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of blogs or columns.