Shuklinov compared Russia's "plan" with the "result" it received

DEMILITARIZATION

◾️ Russia lost:

The entire regular army of the Russian Federation (there were 900,000+, of which about 300,000 were professional ground troops) and all modern military equipment, including old stocks in warehouses, were destroyed.

◾️ Russia received:

Ukraine has built the strongest army in Europe. It was the first in the world to create the Unmanned Systems Forces. Every month, from 2,000 to 3,000 UAVs and missiles strike the territory of the Russian Federation, which has never happened in history. In addition, the share of its own weapons is already more than 50%. In parallel, the European Union is investing hundreds of billions in rearmament.

DENAZIFICATION

◾️ Russia lost:

Support for Russian narratives (the Great Patriotic War, the St. George Ribbon, the Immortal Regiment, and so on) could reach 15% by 2022. It currently fluctuates within the margin of error even in Russian-speaking regions of the country.

◾️ Russia received:

As a result of the aggression, Ukrainians began to massively support everything related to the historical struggle for freedom: from the UPA and Bandera to the rethinking of the USSR — now this is the period of occupation of Ukraine. Total national restoration and correct narratives (World War II, Remembrance Day, and so on).

NEUTRALITY OF UKRAINE

◾️ Russia lost:

By 2022, the idea of neutrality was quite widespread among Ukrainians, it could reach 25%. The prospects of Ukraine joining NATO were extremely vague. In addition, there was no military threat from Ukraine to Russia. Weak army, lack of modern weapons. No drones and missiles every night over Russia.

◾️ Russia received:

Ukrainians no longer consider neutrality as a form of existence. Military treaties with dozens of countries, their own production of modern weapons, a large and combat-ready army, their own long-range missiles and drones, integration into NATO is enshrined in the Constitution and is the main goal of foreign policy.

THE CAPTURE OF UKRAINE

◾️ Russia lost:

Moscow hoped to quickly capture Kyiv and establish a puppet regime. However, the war dragged on for years and cost the Russian economy the collapse. All the resources accumulated by the Russians over more than 30 years were burned on the war — as officially acknowledged by the Russian Ministry of Finance.

◾️ Russia received:

Since 2014 and until today (in ten years of war) Russians have captured and hold less than 18% of the territory of Ukraine (including Crimea). Even a significant part of Donbas is under Ukrainian control. With the current dynamics, it will take Russians from 400 to 600 years to capture all of Ukraine and implement their plan.

STATUS IN THE WORLD AND RECOGNITION OF OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

◾️ Russia lost

The Russian economy had a huge impact on Europe and the world. Joint ventures with the richest corporations in the world. Joint production and projects around the world. The Russian economy was developing dynamically, society was getting richer. Russia monopolized many markets in certain segments. All this is hopelessly lost.

◾️ Russia received:

The collapse of trade relations, sanctions, embargoes and capital withdrawal from the Russian Federation. Russia has lost key international trade ties for itself. Everything that was built over decades has fallen into disrepair and lost its meaning. Russia is no longer at the table of big business. It is not making money. It is rapidly getting poorer and degrading. And only a few puppet entities have recognized Crimea as Russian.

RUSSIAN LANGUAGE AND RUSSIAN CHURCH

◾️ Russia lost

Wide support for the UOC-MP (ROC in Ukraine) and millions of Russian-speaking Ukrainians is the reality of January 2022. High influence of Russian culture on Ukrainian society.

◾️ Russia received:

The UOC-MP is actually banned in Ukraine. The number of parishes is constantly decreasing. The use of the Russian language has also fallen sharply. Russian culture is almost not in demand. It is embarrassing to even discuss anything Russian.

THE MYTH OF RUSSIA'S INVINCIBILITY

◾️ Russia lost:

At the beginning of 2022, the Russian army was considered one of the strongest in the world. This was the basis for the Russians' confidence in the rapid capture of Ukraine. The idea that the Russians could be defeated on the battlefield was considered absurd. And a possible attack on the territory of the Russian Federation was considered suicidal. The Russian fleet in the Black Sea was considered an irresistible force.

◾️ Russia received:

Thousands of Russians were taken prisoner. The number of dead and wounded Russians exceeded one million. The Black Sea Fleet practically no longer exists, the flagship was destroyed. The Russians lost the Battle of the Black Sea, they were unable to organize a naval blockade of Ukraine.

The Battle for Kyiv was a defeat for the Russian army. The Battle for Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv was a defeat. The Battle for Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odessa was a defeat. Russia failed to capture a single regional center of Ukraine, consistently losing the war for each one. The last attempt, the occupation of Kherson, ended in the flight of the Russian army.

One of the most striking episodes of the war was the defeat of the elite Russian landing force, crushed near Gostomel. Abandoned to their fate, the paratroopers had no chance of surviving the encirclement. And Ukrainians now make souvenir trophies from the helicopters that attacked Kyiv.

By 2025, the greatest achievement of the entire once great Russian army is the capture of a town or village in Donbas. For this, Putin personally conducts the inclusion. But the capture of Ukraine is no longer a question — Russia is weak.

DEGRADATION OF RUSSIAN REQUIREMENTS

There is a myth that Russia's conditions are constantly increasing. This is not true.

To summarize, by early 2022, Russia planned for the complete surrender of Ukraine, the capture of Kyiv, and complete control over Ukraine — politically, militarily, and economically. This plan — a blitzkrieg — collapsed almost immediately.

But the Russians still felt they could win. That's why in Istanbul in 2022 they demanded to reduce the Ukrainian Armed Forces to 80,000.

In addition, compared to 2022, Russia is no longer asking Ukraine to recognize the occupied territories as Russian.

Russia also undertakes to legally promise not to attack Ukraine and Europe again (no matter how ridiculous it may sound. However, in 2022 there were no such promises).

Russia also agreed that $100 billion of its frozen assets would go to the reconstruction of Ukraine. In 2022, of course, this was out of the question.

In addition, the "Plan 28" developed by the Russians no longer mentions either the UOC MP (ROC in Ukraine) or the Russian language. Now it would be convenient for the Russians if Ukraine (within the EU) adopts "rules of religious tolerance and protection of minority languages."

That is, from year to year, Russia's demands, on the contrary, are decreasing — under the pressure of defeats at the front, sanctions, and economic decline. And the initial goals of the "SVO" are now mentioned without clarification.

In addition, the Russian Federation no longer has the resources to continue the war. Accordingly, next year we can expect another round of "urgent negotiations" on "urgent peace". But the list of demands will be even shorter and even more formal. We continue to work. We must finish off Russia.

Petro Shuklinov

Ukrainian military officer and journalist