Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin could order an attack on a NATO state within the next two to four years, and the Baltic states may be one of Russia's most likely targets.

Source: European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius at a conference in Vilnius on 17 November, as reported by European Pravda

Details: Putin could attack one of the Baltic states within two to four years, the commissioner warned.

Quote: "One of the most important questions for the European Union and for NATO is how to defend the Baltics and how to learn from Ukraine. The urgency of the first question comes from the public statements of our intelligence services, including from Germany, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, and from our region, that Putin can be ready to test Article 5 during the next two or four years before 2030."

Details: Kubilius added that in such a case, the Baltic states could become "one of the preferable targets of the new Kremlin aggression".

Quote: "It will be an aggression also against all of NATO and against all of the European Union. I would like to recall that the recent famous book, If Russia Wins: A Scenario by Carlo Masala, the well-known German analyst, who is also a professor at Bundeswehr University, presents a threatening scenario when NATO fails to agree on how to react when Narva is occupied. I don't want to elaborate on Carlo Masala's scenario, but defending the Baltics means being ready for different scenarios."

More details: Kubilius mentioned that the Treaty on the European Union contains the well-known Article 42(7) on mutual assistance in the event of armed aggression against one member state, "which some experts consider a stronger one than NATO Article 5 in terms of the obligations of member states to help each other".

Background:

• In an interview with European Pravda's editor Serhii Sydorenko in May 2025, Andrius Kubilius predicted that Russia could attack a NATO state within three years.
• Kubilius also recently stated that given the potential for a Russian attack on NATO, Ukraine needs to be integrated into EU defence projects and its experience adopted, as no other European army possesses such experience of modern warfare.
• The commissioner also expressed the view that an EU reparations loan for Ukraine would be a strong argument to convince the Kremlin that the war must be brought to an end.

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