At the same time, at this stage of the war, Russian forces have managed to accumulate additional resources, estimated at 90,000 to 120,000 troops, for a breakthrough towards Zaporizhzhia and the Dnipropetrovsk region.Breakthrough to Huliaipole, threat of encirclementIn the last few weeks, Russian forces have managed to break through the Ukrainian defense along the Yanchur River. Over a stretch of more than 20 km, they crossed the river, and in the area of the Ukrainian fortified position in Uspenivka, they even managed to advance significantly to the west. In the last 10 days, Russian forces have captured 9 villages. First, they occupied the villages located on the riverbank: Pavlivka, Uspenivka, Novomykolaivka, and Novovasylivske, but then they broke through 12 km and captured 5 more: Nove, Solodke, Novouspenivske, Yablukove, and Rivnopillia. Russian troops have significantly increased the pace of their advance and are not slowing down. In a few weeks, the fighting may reach the streets of Huliaipole, which is less than 7 km away for the Russian forces. Also under threat of encirclement are the Ukrainian defenders in the area of the villages of Chervone and Zelenyi Hai, where Russian forces have effectively reached their rear. The Tsilynna Balka landscape reserve may become an obstacle to the direct advance of Russian forces on Huliaipole – beyond it lie only the outskirts of the city.At the same time, Russian forces may not immediately storm Huliaipole due to a lack of resources, but instead may begin to encircle the city, cutting off logistics. They have about 8 km left to break through to the Pokrovske–Huliaipole highway, and there are no landscape obstacles or well-fortified Ukrainian Armed Forces defensive lines along the way. Therefore, in the coming weeks, they will move west, maneuvering between forest plantations to bypass the city. The pace of the offensive on the southern front is extremely threatening. In the year and 3 months since the occupation of Vuhledar, Russian forces have managed to advance 70 km deep to the west. In the last 3 months alone, they have captured 250 sq km at the junction of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The breakthrough in the Zaporizhzhia region is over 27 km. If the situation continues to develop in this way, in another year we will see Russian forces on the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia, which is 70 km away. And along the way, the entire Ukrainian southern flank between Huliaipole and Orikhiv, which has been holding the defense since 2022, will collapse.Threat to the first city in the Dnipropetrovsk regionFor now, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are managing to hold back the Russian forces in the Dnipropetrovsk region, in the Pokrovske or, more accurately, the Oleksandrivka direction. Although Russian forces are attacking all key settlements south of the Vovcha River, they have not yet been able to capture either Novooleksandrivka or Oleksiivka. Therefore, they are trying new options, such as a breakthrough to Orestopil, which is located right next to another Ukrainian fortified area in Velykomykhailivka. However, the most threatening development appears to be the advance of Russian forces along the Yanchur River towards Yehorivka and Danylivka. A Russian flag was recently spotted in Danylivka, meaning Russian forces managed to reach it but could not establish a foothold. However, the trends are clear. Danylivka is located on the Pokrovske–Huliaipole highway. Therefore, it is quite likely that the first cut of this logistical artery will happen here. This is bad for Huliaipole, but the defenders of Pokrovske, provided the river crossings are destroyed, can still hold back the Russian forces for a long time along the Vovcha River, which has now become an insurmountable barrier for them. In particular, slightly to the north, in the area of Novopavlivka, the Russian Armed Forces have been unable to successfully storm this fortified area precisely because of the water barrier. They are bogged down on the outskirts of Ivanivka and Filiia. However, Russian forces recently managed to break through 3.5 km north of Dache, where they want to reach the road leading to Novopavlivka. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not destroy this bridgehead, battles for Novopavlivka will soon begin, which could collapse the Ukrainian defense that has held for the last six months along the administrative border between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.Prospects for the defense of PokrovskCurrently, there are no positive scenarios for the liberation of the occupied parts of Pokrovsk, so the focus is rather on prolonging the defense of every corner of the city as much as possible. In the southern part, Russian forces have already established a firm foothold. They are also breaking through into the northern districts, where they are being destroyed in large numbers. The central districts of the city remain in a gray zone, controlled only by the drones of both armies.Consequently, the Russian army is not abandoning its tactic of enveloping the city from the flanks and cutting off logistics in Hryshyne, Rivne, and Rodynske. These are now the three key points to the "gates" of Pokrovsk. Russian forces want to take Hryshyne both frontally and by attempting to bypass it from the flanks. The Ukrainian defense along the Udachne-Kotlyne line, which held back the Russian forces for over six months, is gradually beginning to crumble. Russian forces have managed to break through to the north in two places towards the Pokrovsk–Pavlohrad highway, with the prospect of outflanking the defenders of Hryshyne. In this way, they are stretching Ukraine's already scarce resources. Indeed, in Pokrovsk, several Ukrainian brigades from the 7th Air Assault Corps are facing three combined arms armies of the Russian Armed Forces.For now, only isolated sabotage and reconnaissance groups are reaching Rivne, which are being destroyed by the Ukrainian Defense Forces, but this is a rather negative trend because the supply hub for Myrnohrad is concentrated in this village. If Rivne is occupied, then Myrnohrad, which is currently holding its defense firmly, may fall even without active street fighting. In Myrnohrad itself, Russian assault troops have so far only engaged in battles on the eastern outskirts. Their deepest penetration into the city is near the mine from the direction of the village of Promin. But for now, they cannot establish a firm foothold anywhere. On the southern flank, the Ukrainian Defense Forces seem to have begun to withdraw from their positions in Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar. At least, a large number of Russian forces are being recorded in Lysivka. If this is true, it is a logical step after the Ukrainian Armed Forces finally lost control of the highway from Selydove, as well as the village of Chunyshyne and partially Novopavlivka.Dobropillia scenario for the defense of PokrovskOn the Dobropillia front, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have still not been able to finish destroying the encircled Russian forces near Shakhove. However, this should end quickly. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to advance on Volodymyrivka and have advanced several more square kilometers to its outskirts. However, Volodymyrivka is located on the left bank of the Kazennyi Torets River, whereas the plan for the longest possible defense of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad is to clear the bridgehead created by the Russian forces on the right bank of the river. This includes the areas of the villages of Zapovidne, Maiak, Fedorivka, and Razine, as well as the town of Chervonyi Lyman. To do this, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are attacking from the north through Sukhetske and Zatyshok, and from the west, knocking out more and more sabotage and reconnaissance groups from Rodynske almost daily. If this plan is realized, the battles for Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are unlikely to end even by the end of this year. If not, the cities may fall sooner, left without supplies.Kostiantynivka – the next major battlefieldThe front is getting closer and closer to the city every day, and the first Russian assault troops managed to penetrate its outskirts a couple of weeks ago. The Russian Armed Forces are breaking through to Kostiantynivka from several directions at once. Although the Ukrainian Defense Forces have held back the Russian forces for a long time in Chasiv Yar, they, unable to occupy the city completely, are bypassing it from the flanks. In particular, they recently expanded their zone of control by several square kilometers near the village of Maiske. South of Chasiv Yar, they are still unsuccessfully storming Stupochky. However, between Toretsk and Kostiantynivka, the Ukrainian defense is gradually being pushed back and is retreating to the north. Russian forces managed to break through near Pleshchiivka, Bila Hora, and Ivanopillia, occupy Katerynivka, take the southern coast of the Kleban-Byk reservoir, and also had a minor advance from the right flank, near Oleksandro-Kalylove. The offensive on Kostiantynivka is proceeding with low intensity, as Russian forces have committed their main resources to neighboring sections of the front. Therefore, what is happening here can be assessed as preparation for the encirclement of the city. The main element of this should be a breakthrough to the north between Kostiantynivka and Dobropillia, in the Poltavka area. For now, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have been holding their positions here steadfastly for several months.The maps were created based on information received from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ General Staff, as well as from other open and verified sources. At the same time, the maps are not completely accurate and only conditionally reflect the trends in the combat zone.