ContentsOrbán on the edge: an electoral catastrophe nobody predictedHow Orbán sabotages Europe and Ukraine"You're fantastic!": how Trump turns Orbán into a world politics starWhite House visit: Orbán seeks salvation in WashingtonThe logic of absurdity: why Budapest isn't about diplomacyFriendship as a weapon: why Trump's personal ties threaten global securityConclusion: personal politics over national interestsThe Hungarian prime minister, who has ruled the country with an iron fist for 15 years, now stands on the brink of political catastrophe. His ratings are plummeting, the opposition has a real chance of winning the 2026 elections for the first time in a decade and a half, and the country's economy is stagnating at its lowest growth rate in 15 years. And at precisely this moment, Trump suddenly invites Orbán to the White House and proposes to make Budapest the center of world diplomacy. Coincidence? Hardly.This article reveals how personal friendship between two leaders transforms geopolitics into a tool of domestic politics, why choosing Budapest contradicts basic logic, and how Ukraine has become a hostage to Trump's attempt to save his drowning friend.Orbán on the edge: an electoral catastrophe nobody predictedViktor Orbán is used to winning. Since 2010, he has kept Hungary under the control of his Fidesz party, transforming the country into a hybrid democracy with authoritarian features. But 2025 became the year when his unshakeable power began to crack. According to a Median poll conducted in summer 2025, the opposition Tisza party led by Péter Magyar overtook Fidesz for the first time in history with a crushing margin: 51% to 36%. This isn't just a decline in support, it's a collapse. The picture is even worse in personal ratings. Orbán, who for years was the undisputed popularity leader, now finds himself in third place with only 31% support. Péter Magyar, a former Orbán system insider who went into opposition, tops the ratings with 39%. Elections are scheduled for April 2026, and for the first time in 15 years of power, Orbán has a real chance of losing.Electoral problems are compounded by economic ones. Hungary's economy in 2025 shows a pitiful 1.8% GDP growth, the lowest figure in the last 15 years. Inflation remains high, and a series of corruption scandals involving Orbán's inner circle is undermining trust even among his traditional electorate. Orbán himself has repeatedly claimed that the war in Ukraine costs Hungary billions. According to him, losses reach 9,100 billion forints (approximately 23 billion euros). This became part of his narrative: "We need peace, not war." But in reality, this rhetoric hides banal electoral panic.The most ironic aspect of Orbán's situation is that he's falling precisely when his ideological counterparts across Europe are thriving. Giorgia Meloni in Italy has maintained stable popularity since 2022, leading a right-wing government that successfully balances national interests and EU integration. Austria's Freedom Party won elections for the first time since World War II in September 2024 with 29.2% of the vote and is now forming a government. Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany is showing historic highs in support in the eastern states. The right is riding high across Europe, while Orbán, their ideological inspiration, is sinking. Why? The crucial difference: Meloni provides active support to Ukraine while maintaining productive relations with Brussels. Other rising right-wing forces like AfD and Austria's Freedom Party remain in opposition, where it's easier to criticize without facing the constraints of actual governance. They don't turn their countries into platforms for Putin's propaganda. Orbán went too far. His unconditional attachment to Moscow and constant conflicts with Brussels have turned him into a pariah even among the right.Orbán found himself in a situation where his own strategy of balancing between the West and Moscow, using veto as a blackmail tool, stopped working. The European right-wing electorate wants strong national leaders but doesn't want to be associated with the Kremlin. Orbán crossed that line, and now he's paying the price.How Orbán sabotages Europe and UkraineOrbán's falling ratings aren't accidental. They're the result of years of policy that turned Hungary into a headache for the European Union and an enemy to Ukraine.From the moment Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Orbán became the main brake on European support for Kyiv. He systematically blocked decisions on Ukraine's EU integration, using his veto power in the EU Council. The most cynical episode was blocking 50 billion euros in aid to Ukraine. Orbán refused to support the aid package until he received his own financial preferences from Brussels. It was open trading in other people's blood.Orbán has turned anti-European rhetoric into the foundation of his political identity. He calls the EU a "war project" against Russia, accuses Brussels of imposing "liberal values," and openly conflicts with the European Commission leadership. A particularly loud public clash occurred with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the European Parliament. Orbán accused her of "military hysteria" and "destroying Europe" through support for Ukraine. Von der Leyen responded by reminding that Hungary receives billions of euros from EU funds but systematically violates the rule of law. As a result, 22 billion euros in European funds for Hungary have been frozen due to violations of democracy principles and the rule of law.Orbán is the only EU leader who continues to maintain close personal relations with Vladimir Putin. He has repeatedly visited Moscow even after the full-scale war began, calls Putin a "partner," and blocks any EU attempts to increase pressure on the Kremlin. In July 2024, Orbán undertook a so-called "peace mission," a trip to Moscow, Beijing, and Washington, where he tried to position himself as a mediator. But this "mission" caused outrage in Kyiv and Brussels, as Orbán acted without an EU mandate and effectively legitimized Putin's aggression.Orbán has turned his anti-Ukrainian position into an electoral narrative. He plays on Hungarians' fears about the economic consequences of war, on nostalgia for the "neutrality" of Cold War times. The Hungarian prime minister deliberately escalates aggression toward Ukraine and the EU as part of his political and especially pre-election rhetoric. When Ukraine or the EU responds to his provocations, he presents it to Hungarians as evidence of "external interference" in national affairs. But this strategy is failing because most Hungarians understand: the real threat to their security isn't Brussels, but Moscow. And even the most persistent propaganda can't hide the fact that Orbán chose not the side of peace, but the side of the aggressor."You're fantastic!": how Trump turns Orbán into a world politics starDonald Trump and Viktor Orbán aren't just political allies. They're friends. And this friendship has long exceeded the bounds of diplomatic protocol.Orbán became one of Trump's most frequent guests at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. Throughout 2024, they met at least three times: in March, July, and December. These aren't formal visits but friendly meetings where not only political issues are discussed but personal matters. Trump has repeatedly called Orbán a "fantastic leader," "strong," and "smart." At his rallies during the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump regularly mentioned Orbán as an example of a leader who "respects strength" and "doesn't let Brussels dictate."The most telling episode was the summit on resolving the Gaza situation, held in October 2025 in Egypt's Sharm el-Sheikh. This summit was organized on Trump's initiative after reaching a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. And suddenly an unexpected name appeared among participants: Viktor Orbán. The prime minister of Hungary, a country that has no direct relation to the Middle East conflict, isn't a key regional player, and isn't among the circle of mediator states.But Trump invited Orbán personally. And not just invited, he publicly highlighted his role at the summit itself. At the meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh, Trump stated: "You're fantastic... I'm the only one that matters." This phrase says a lot. Trump isn't just supporting Orbán, he's actively promoting him on the international stage, giving him the status of a global player that he objectively doesn't deserve.Orbán's participation in the Middle East summit is part of Trump's larger strategy. The American president is trying to create the image of a "peacemaker" around Orbán, a leader who can mediate in the most complex conflicts. But looking at the facts, it becomes clear: Orbán isn't an effective mediator in Gaza or Ukraine. He has the trust of neither Israel, nor the Palestinians, nor Ukraine, nor most European partners. His "peacemaking initiatives" are PR, not diplomacy.The answer to the question "why does Trump need this" is quite simple: Trump is returning a favor. Orbán was one of the first European leaders to support Trump during his first term. When Trump lost the 2020 election, Orbán was one of the few who openly sympathized with him. And now that Trump has returned to power, he's paying in kind. But there's also a pragmatic side. Trump understands that Orbán is his "man" in Europe. The only EU leader willing to openly support American policy even when it contradicts European interests. So it's beneficial for Trump to keep Orbán in power. And for that, he needs to boost his ratings. And this is where Budapest enters the stage.But Trump isn't Orbán's only patron. Putin also backs the Hungarian leader, though for entirely different reasons. While Trump's support stems from friendship, Orbán's relationship with Putin is built on dependency. Hungary relies on Russian energy: Moscow provides over 80% of its natural gas and most of its oil. Financial ties between Hungarian businesses and Russian capital, often running through opaque corporate structures, create additional Kremlin leverage. For Putin, Orbán is a valuable tool: a voice inside the EU and NATO that can obstruct Western unity on sanctions and Ukraine support.White House visit: Orbán seeks salvation in WashingtonOn November 7, 2025, Viktor Orbán arrived in Washington for his most important meeting. The Hungarian prime minister settled in Blair House, the official state residence for U.S. guests, located right next to the White House. This was a symbolic gesture: Trump was receiving Orbán not as an ordinary European leader but as a close friend.Formally, the agenda included energy, defense, and trade issues. But the real purpose of the visit was different. According to The Guardian, Orbán sought to secure an invitation for Trump to visit Hungary before the elections, but so far there have been no public confirmations of this.But the visit also had a sharp practical component. In October 2025, Trump imposed new sanctions against Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil. These sanctions threatened to undercut Hungary at the root: Moscow supplies over 80% of Hungarian gas and most of its oil. Orbán fell into a trap. On one hand, he couldn't publicly abandon Russian energy, this would be political suicide before the elections. On the other, Trump's sanctions could paralyze the Hungarian economy and provoke a social crisis.Before the meeting, Orbán released a video address on his Facebook page, stating: "We are not asking Americans for gifts. We only hope for understanding that the sanctions system puts countries like ours in an impossible position." He added that "sanctions on Russian energy resources are not a matter of bargaining, it's a matter of understanding."But was this simply a technical visit for an exemption from sanctions? Previously, Orbán insisted that negotiations between Trump and Putin take place in Budapest. According to press reports, the Hungarian side was considering the possibility of a three-way meeting of Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy on neutral territory in Hungary's capital. For Orbán, this would be an ideal combination: international PR, an opportunity to show himself as a mediator, and a trump card against the opposition, which accuses him of isolation. This option benefits Putin: it demonstrates a "split" in Europe, shows that there are leaders willing to cooperate with him. It benefits Trump: he helps his friend Orbán. And Ukraine remains excluded from decisions about its own fate. But the Budapest summit was postponed indefinitely.The November 7 visit became a clear signal: Trump demonstrated everything possible to support Orbán, even if it contradicts the position of other European allies. For Orbán, this visit is not just diplomacy but salvation before electoral catastrophe. For Trump, a demonstration of loyalty to a friend. For Europe and Ukraine, an alarm signal.The logic of absurdity: why Budapest isn't about diplomacyLet's bring all arguments together to see the full picture of the absurdity of choosing Budapest as a negotiating venue.A mediator by definition must be neutral. Orbán, however, is an open Moscow ally. He blocks sanctions against Russia, blocks military aid to Ukraine, blocks financial support for Kyiv, travels to Putin and calls him a "partner," uses anti-Ukrainian rhetoric in his own electoral campaign. This isn't a mediator. This is one side's advocate.The European Union doesn't officially support Budapest. Ukraine is categorically against it. The U.S. is imposing this decision contrary to allies' positions. The question arises: who will these negotiations be with? Is this a dialogue between Trump and Putin, where Ukraine is just decoration?Orbán calls Hungary the "island of peace." But this isn't peace, it's isolation. Hungary has isolated itself from the EU, from NATO (despite formal membership), from democratic values. Orbán created not an "island of peace" but an island of authoritarianism, where "peace" means capitulation to the aggressor.Budapest as a venue for negotiations is a symbol. A symbol that Trump is willing to sacrifice Ukraine's interests for personal connections. A demonstration that in Trump's transactional diplomacy world, personal loyalty costs more than strategic interests of allies. And it's a signal to the entire world: if you're Trump's friend, he'll pull you out of any hole, even at the cost of undermining trust in Western institutions.Friendship as a weapon: why Trump's personal ties threaten global securityThe Budapest case isn't an isolated incident. It's a symptom of a deeper problem: Trump's transactional diplomacy, based on personal connections rather than strategic interests or values.Trump builds foreign policy around personal relationships. If he likes a leader, he's willing to ignore any of their flaws. For Trump, a "good leader" is one who personally appeals to him, who praises him, who demonstrates "strength." Not one who defends democratic values or adheres to international law.The Budapest theme is a test. Trump is checking how far he can go supporting his friend contrary to allies' positions. If this works, if Orbán gets his PR effect and stays in power, it will become a template. Other authoritarian leaders will see: friendship with Trump is a guarantee of support, even if you break the rules. Even if the summit is postponed, the very fact of its announcement already works for Orbán domestically.For Ukraine, the price of Trump's friendship with Orbán could be high. If Budapest becomes a precedent, future negotiations may also be held in formats favorable to Moscow. Moreover, if Trump feels that Ukraine "doesn't respect" his friends, he may start cutting aid. This creates toxic dynamics: Kyiv is forced to navigate between a principled position and the pragmatic necessity of maintaining good relations with Washington.Trump doesn't understand (or doesn't want to understand) that foreign policy isn't business deals between friends. It's a system of institutions, treaties, and a balance of power. When personal sympathies become more important than strategic interests, the entire system begins to shake. And that's exactly what we're witnessing now.Conclusion: personal politics over national interestsThe story of Budapest and Orbán's visit to the White House on November 7 is a perfect illustration of how, in the modern world, the personal interests of political leaders can turn the logic of diplomacy upside down.Orbán is falling, and that's a fact. The Hungarian premier for the first time in 15 years of power finds himself in a situation of real electoral threat. His party is losing to the opposition by a crushing score, his personal rating has fallen, the economy is stalling. The 2026 elections could be the end of the Orbán era.Donald Trump is doing everything possible to boost Orbán's ratings: inviting him to the Gaza summit where he has nothing to do; receiving him at the White House with the honors of a state guest; proposing Budapest as a venue for negotiations on Ukraine contrary to logic and allies' positions; considering exemptions from sanctions that could save the Hungarian economy from collapse.For Russia, Budapest is equally beneficial. Knowing the low probability of negotiations actually taking place there, but simultaneously insisting on this venue, Putin demonstrates willingness to negotiate while implementing a scenario of indefinitely postponing them. For Moscow, Budapest is beneficial precisely because it demonstrates: in Europe there's a leader willing to cooperate with the Kremlin. This undermines EU unity, and that's Putin's strategic goal.Therefore, from Trump, Putin, and especially Orbán's side, the Budapest negotiations theme will be regularly revived and kept alive. It works for all three, even if the summit never takes place.Budapest demonstrates the depth of the rift between Trump's vision and European allies. If the U.S. continues to push decisions contrary to EU positions, trust between partners will continue to erode. For Ukraine, this means the need to balance between a principled position (not legitimizing Orbán) and pragmatism (not spoiling relations with Trump). The most likely strategy is stalling for time until Hungary's elections. As well as working with ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine who have voting rights: convincing them that a democratic, not totalitarian Hungary is the best choice both for Ukraine as a whole and for them personally.