Contents1. Background: From Avdiivka to Pokrovsk2. Key moment: attempt to cut off logistics and supply lines3. Ukraine’s response: airborne units, intelligence operations, and urban clearing4. Expert opinions: how long can the defense hold — and is it worth it?Ukraine has additionally deployed special intelligence units personally commanded by the head of the Defence Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, to prevent a repeat of the situation that occurred in Avdiivka. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, is also at the front, and on November 4 it was reported that even the President of Ukraine visited positions near Pokrovsk.However, does Ukraine need another “Bakhmut fortress” with all its heavy losses, or would it be better to withdraw to more advantageous positions? Espreso explains.Background: From Avdiivka to PokrovskThe battles for Pokrovsk cannot be understood outside the broader context of the Donbas front. The prelude to the current situation was the Russian occupation of Avdiivka in early 2024 — one of the bloodiest battles of the war.After the fall of Avdiivka, Russian forces, taking advantage of their superiority in manpower and their tactic of gradual advances through massive infantry assaults supported by drones, artillery, glide bombs, and light armored vehicles, began moving westward toward the major logistical hub of Pokrovsk. This city, with a pre-war population of about 60,000, serves as a key “gateway” to the Donetsk region, controlling vital rail and road routes that connect the front with the rear.It took Russia a year and a half to advance just 40 kilometers and begin encircling Pokrovsk and its nearest neighbor, the city of Myrnohrad.It is clear that the Kremlin’s goal is the complete occupation of Donetsk region. For Ukraine, Pokrovsk is not just a city but a crucial defensive stronghold in Donetsk. Its loss — along with that of Myrnohrad — would open the way to Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk, the last major cities in Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control. Moreover, located beyond Pokrovsk is Ukraine’s only coking coal mine, which is of critical importance to the country’s metallurgical industry.Key moment: attempt to cut off logistics and supply linesIn the autumn of this year, Russian units intensified their maneuvers around Pokrovsk and the nearby city of Myrnohrad, attempting to cut key supply routes and isolate Ukrainian forces in this part of the Donetsk region. This was accompanied by increased use of drones for reconnaissance and artillery strikes on access roads, as well as tactical offensive pressure in several sectors simultaneously.As a result, Russian troops managed to secure a number of positions around the city, creating the preconditions for an actual operational encirclement — which the Kremlin hastily and falsely declared to be a complete blockade of Ukrainian forces, even going so far as to send out invitations to journalists for a “press tour” of the city.So the main problem that led to the current situation is Russia cutting off Ukraine’s logistics routes. The occupying forces began actively attacking the city’s main artery — the road to Pavlohrad — which created increasing difficulties with delivering ammunition, evacuations, and unit rotations. As Espreso recently quoted Taras Myshak, the senior communications officer with Ukraine's 59th Separate Assault Brigade, “most positions now have to be approached on foot” because of the large number of Russian drones.As a result, Russian forces began infiltrating the city. Initially, these were sabotage groups that had been detected as early as July. By late October, however, Ukrainian authorities acknowledged the presence of several hundred Russian soldiers who had entrenched themselves inside Pokrovsk.It is worth noting that thanks to a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Dobropillia area, Russian advances north of Pokrovsk were slowed. However, this did not stop the occupying forces, who continue to push into the city from the southern sector.Ukraine’s response: airborne units, intelligence operations, and urban clearingAs of today, according to various sources, Russian forces have managed to capture anywhere from half of Pokrovsk (according to DeepState maps) to 85% (as suggested by a Bild analyst). However, Ukraine denies these claims, noting that the situation is highly dynamic and that there are many gray zones — areas of uncertain control.At the end of October, the 7th Rapid Response Corps of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces, operating in Pokrovsk, reported that street battles were ongoing with enemy groups that, due to their numerical and equipment advantage, managed to infiltrate and accumulate in different parts of the city. Therefore, they emphasized, there is no full control by either side over any district of Pokrovsk.On November 1, Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that combined units of the Special Operations Forces, Military Law Enforcement Service, Security Service of Ukraine, and other components of the Defense Forces — including the Main Intelligence Directorate — are operating in Pokrovsk. He added that the defense of the agglomeration will be reinforced with additional units, weapons, equipment, and, in particular, drone systems and UAV assets.“We continue the liberation and clearing of territory in the Dobropillia salient. Pokrovsk — we’re holding. Myrnohrad — we’re holding,” he assured.Special forces of the Defence Intelligence Directorate (HUR), having carried out an airborne operation using Black Hawk helicopters, began clearing the part of Pokrovsk where Russian forces had entrenched themselves, according to Reuters. The operation is personally overseen by HUR chief Kyrylo Budanov. On November 4, the agency reported that following the successful airborne assault, a ground corridor was opened to the HUR special forces who had secured their designated positions, allowing additional special units to join them.“Coordinated work continues together with all components of Ukraine’s Security and Defense Forces,” the HUR assured, sharing photos of Budanov at a field command post with maps.Thus, various Ukrainian units are attempting to carry out clearing operations and local counterattacks in and around the city, but Russia's advance makes this an increasingly difficult and dangerous task.According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russian forces have concentrated around 170,000 troops in the Pokrovsk sector. This gives them a significant advantage in advancing through so-called “meat assaults,” as the ratio of forces is roughly 1 to 8, Zelenskyy said. This means that about 21,000 Ukrainian troops are holding this direction.In fact, the main question now is whether Ukraine will be able to push Russian troops back from the logistics routes along the road to Pavlohrad. Without this, it will become increasingly difficult and costly to hold Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and ultimately, Ukrainian troops may have to perform a “planned” — yet urgent — withdrawal. This point is particularly emphasized in reports by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).On November 3, the Ukrainian Defense Forces halted the Russian advance north of Pokrovsk and prevented the road to Rodynske from being cut off. If this success can be developed further, Ukrainian forces will have a better chance of holding the city’s defense.Expert opinions: how long can the defense hold — and is it worth it?The problem is that the situation is already critical and continues to worsen, meaning that all Ukrainian counteractions may have only a temporary effect — but at the cost of heavy losses. Therefore, the question arises: does Ukraine need another scenario like Bakhmut, with its numerous casualties?Analysts and experts hold differing opinions on this. According to the pessimistic scenario, the city will find itself increasingly encircled in a semi-cauldron, which would eventually force Ukrainian forces to withdraw to the western lines of Donetsk region, where new defensive fortifications are actively being built. In this case, it would mark Russia’s biggest gain since Bakhmut and Avdiivka.Under the containment scenario, if Ukraine manages to maintain logistics for supplies, evacuations, and troop rotations, Russia is unlikely to achieve a quick success — allowing Ukrainian forces to hold parts of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad for a longer period. An optimistic scenario of fully pushing Russian forces back does not seem realistic due to a lack of resources.“To say the city’s fate is decided — no, you can’t say that. To say it’s already our little victory — no, you can’t say that either. There are very clear tasks — ensure a possible withdrawal, destroy as many of the enemy as possible, and hold out as long as possible in order to blunt this offensive potential of the Russians,” noted Dmytro Zhmailo, executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, on Radio NV.Each side speaks of gains in attack/containment, but the final resolution of the situation is approaching. While Ukrainian leadership refuses to withdraw troops, Der Spiegel reports, Russian gains are becoming more noticeable. Therefore, Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari warned back in September that, from a military point of view, it would be better for Ukraine to conduct tactical withdrawals to preserve its forces and soldiers’ lives as much as possible, letting the Russians exhaust themselves with costly attacks for minimal gains.According to Pavlo Lakiichuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, the current aim of the occupying Russian forces in Pokrovsk is to disorganize the Ukrainian defense. If they succeed, the defense will turn into fragmented resistance, which is not reliable.“This is the idea behind a new tactic called infiltration — when the enemy picks gaps in the configuration of our defenses. This tactic is driven by a shortage of our personnel, which allows them to operate this way. It is difficult, but they often succeed. However, that does not mean their actions will necessarily end in success,” Lakiichuk emphasized.Ukrainian serviceman and co-founder of the Center for Aerial Reconnaissance Support Ihor Lutsenko told Espreso that if the Russians do succeed in Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could organize the defense so that the enemy pays as high a price as possible for capturing those positions.“Let’s remember examples of towns the Russians took over years. Although they entered residential areas, the fighting went on for years — for example, in Toretsk. The fact that now even a battalion has entered some of the residential districts of the so-called Pokrovsk does not yet mean that Pokrovsk is Russian… This trap is to our advantage when the Russians declare the city ‘theirs’ and rush to make it so. Instead, we need to apply the concept of loss ratios. That is, 1 to 10, 1 to 20 — those are the kinds of losses that will give us a chance to win this war in the long run,” Lutsenko emphasized.The Consortium of Defense Information (CDI) believes that the battle for Pokrovsk may become a new critical turning point in the war, as it reveals a growing divide between the Ukrainian authorities and society — a rift that is also visible within the military.“It is unclear whether the top priority among Pokrovsk’s many ‘problems’ (in the broad sense — since the threat of losing the city is clearly the result of accumulated issues) is a realistic fight against corruption and abuses at all levels of government. One way or another, however, by the autumn of 2025 the divide between Ukrainian society and the authorities has reached the depth of the Challenger Deep in the Mariana Trench. Internal political infighting is corroding not only the government itself but also the army,” wrote Valentyn Badrak, Director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies.He adds that the likely loss of Pokrovsk would be more of a psychological blow than a territorial loss in itself. Such a scenario would give Russia new opportunities and incentives to continue the offensive to capture the entire Donetsk region — something Putin has long dreamed of; on November 4 he also signed a decree introducing year-round conscription into the army.“Right now it’s a back-and-forth: whether we’ll find the strength to build a perimeter around the supply line, clear the blocks and hold the pocket, or the enemy will widen the breach, intensify pressure — and we’ll have to withdraw. Moving through a choke-point six kilometres wide, under air fire, threatens heavy losses. But an early withdrawal out of dense urban areas into the fields also carries losses. At the moment it’s being decided who will spend the winter in the fields under UAV pressure, and who will be sitting in basements,” notes military commentator Kyrylo Danylychenko.So the fate of Pokrovsk will be decided in the coming days and weeks. If the supply corridors hold, and the command can maneuver reserves and apply the principle of inflicting maximum losses on the enemy, the city can still be held — but the price may prove very high. If Russia manages to close the semi-circle and completely cut off evacuation routes and ammunition supply lines, Ukrainian forces will have to hastily withdraw units to more fortified positions, suffering losses, in order to preserve manpower for further fighting.