According to the Resurgam analytical community, traders have reported a noticeable decline in purchases of Moscow oil in China, India, and Turkey over the past several days.Chinese refineriesBloomberg reports that Chinese refineries have begun to reduce purchases of Moscow oil. In some cases, “contracts were terminated when tankers were already on their way to Chinese ports.” Traders estimate that up to 45% of Moscow’s exports to China are now at risk of being “suspended.”Indian refineriesAccording to another Bloomberg report, Indian refineries have increased their purchases of American oil and oil from third countries such as Guyana. Particularly significant is the fact that state-owned refineries have started reducing their purchases, which analysts interpret as a potential sign of a future trade agreement between the United States and India.Turkish refineriesReuters notes that Turkish refineries are partially abandoning Moscow oil to secure the right to export petroleum products to the European Union starting in 2026. This mirrors the motivation of some Indian refineries. Several of Turkey’s largest refineries reportedly plan to switch entirely to oil from third countries, both to comply with EU sanctions and to avoid potential secondary U.S. sanctions.Important observationsThese reductions concern purchases for December 2025, meaning that traders’ reports will only be verifiable in January 2026.The cuts could have a short-term effect, prompting the Kremlin to offer additional discounts as compensation for risk.However, analysts suggest that some reductions will be permanent, especially in market segments tied to EU sanctions. Refineries oriented toward Europe will have to confirm that their petroleum products are not made from Moscow oil starting in early 2026. In order not to lose access to the European market, many of these refineries will switch to alternative suppliers, even at a higher cost.Market dynamicsIt should be noted that reports of “purchase reductions” will likely alternate with reports of “restoration and increase in purchases.” The market remains highly diversified: state-owned, private, and joint-venture refineries behave differently. While some reduce imports, others may ignore risks or take advantage of new discounts. Therefore, it is essential to monitor not only export volumes but also profitability indicators and net revenue from sales.Nevertheless, the overall picture, as emphasized by Resurgam, suggests that a tangible effect will be achieved — especially among Turkish and Indian businesses focused on exporting refined products to Europe.“Given the downward trend in oil prices, which is expected to continue in 2026, and the increasingly painful EU and U.S. sanctions, the Kremlin risks losing an even larger share of its foreign currency earnings amid an economic slowdown,” the analysis notes.Experts consulted for this report estimate that the Kremlin could lose 25% to 30% of its oil exports to Turkey, India, and China. However, they caution that these figures should be viewed “with a grain of salt,” as Moscow will likely respond with additional discounts and flexible schemes to circumvent sanctions.Even so, Resurgam expects that the combined pressure from EU and U.S. sanctions could reduce the Kremlin’s oil revenues by another 20% to 25% in 2026, assuming export volumes remain at 85–87% of 2025 levels.