Putin has effectively refused negotiations where the front line would serve as the line of demarcation (the likelihood of such talks still exists, although it is hard to imagine Putin agreeing to abandon his goal of controlling the Donbas).But we need to understand: the U.S. has practically no leverage. Putin does not believe that Trump will soon allow Tomahawk strikes on oil transfer ports. And this is Washington’s only real lever over Moscow.For Ukraine, this means one crucial point: if we cannot destroy this infrastructure ourselves or with help, we are not a party to be negotiated with on equal terms.Right now, we have no way to significantly raise the stakes, which is the worst scenario in the battle of David and Goliath.1. The war is entering, at minimum, a new 5–6 month cycle during which negotiations are almost unrealistic. The reason is that the main talks of this year, or possibly the next, between the U.S. and China, will begin in a week.2. On the eve of these talks, the Americans achieved the main goal: China was unable to form a strong coalition of satellites that would act as a unified (or hybrid, if you will) front against the U.S.But the U.S. also failed to create anything similar. We have a situation where two hegemonies are entering negotiations, while their satellites stand aside, watching how these talks might conclude.3. These talks will focus on three basic issues: preventing a direct military clash, attempting to agree on new rules of global trade that the U.S. has systematically undermined over the past seven years, and the third part: who and how will control Europe as the world’s most profitable market.Regarding Taiwan and the war over it, armed conflict is clearly far off (more precisely, the likelihood in the coming years is almost zero). Regarding the rules of the game and partly Europe, this is a complete minefield. But the parties will be forced to reach compromises. This is unlikely to happen quickly, but over the next few months, it is highly likely to occur.4. What will Russia do during this time (besides the war in Ukraine)?They will try to create a problem in a third part of the world (repeating the situation in Syria in 2015). However, over the past four years, they have failed to achieve anything similar.They will continue to scare Europe, although no ground invasion is imminent (Europe holds the controlling stake in sanctions, which is why it is so important for Russia to intimidate Europeans).They will try to insert themselves into U.S.–China talks as a mediator, even though they are not needed; at most, the Kremlin can become part of the background agenda. But this is still significant.Russia’s main leverage — the Arctic route and licenses for rare earth deposits — will not play a major role at this stage. Putin, like a dog in the manger, will hold onto them as a trump card but will be too afraid to use them (creating trilateral joint ventures between China, the U.S., and Russia remains unrealistic).5. Putin’s calculation remains unchanged: the front will collapse, Ukraine will freeze, Europe will be scared. As a result, Ukraine will fall, he will threaten Europe with invasion, Europe will panic, and Russia will again become the third global pole. I will say right away — this is impossible, but Putin seems to believe in this scenario.This is all Putin’s myth-making, but it seems to be his plan. The pretense of mediating between the U.S. and China is needed for him to execute this scenario. The main flaws (for Russia, of course) in this scenario are that neither Washington nor Beijing wants a Russian victory, and even less so Russia reaching Odesa.In this context, Ukraine simply must consider how to participate in U.S.–China negotiations to become an essential part of them (so far, we only have very indirect European mediation). But while six months ago Europe had a strategy regarding negotiations on Ukraine and Russia, now no such strategy exists (it is not visible).The ideal scenario for Ukraine is to, at a certain stage of U.S.–China talks, become part of these negotiations and secure joint pressure from China and the U.S. on Russia. So far, it seems no one in Kyiv is raising this issue. If this does not happen within roughly six months, we will enter another cycle of the war, which will last at least a year with all the associated consequences. Only joint efforts by the U.S. and China can stop Putin. Trump alone cannot do it. Unfortunately.SourceAbout the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.