If there's one thing that President Trump respects, it's strength. And if there's one thing he detests, it's weakness. It's high time for the US president to realize, finally and conclusively, that Russia is increasingly vulnerable and Ukraine is growing stronger technologically. It's also high time for Ukraine to act strong by stepping up the pressure on Vladimir Putin and exposing even more of Russia's vulnerabilities.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not come away from his recent trip to Washington DC with what he wanted: Tomahawk cruise missiles. Trump refused to commit to supplying the long-range systems. However, during their discussions, Zelensky appeared to suggest a possible trade – Ukrainian drones for American Tomahawks. "Ukraine has thousands of our own drones, but we don't have Tomahawks," Zelensky said.

The very fact that this idea is even being floated is a testament to the technological progress Ukraine has made in becoming a drone superpower. Kyiv's capabilities have Trump's attention now more than ever.

At the same time, Trump and Putin had an extended telephone conversation that was supposed to lead to a Trump-Putin summit. Predictably, a few days later the White House announced that no meeting was in the works–presumably because Putin, true to fashion, rejected a ceasefire and insisted on Ukraine's capitulation. Then, the Kremlin continued carrying out its bombing campaign against Ukrainian civilians.

Indeed, Trump's past eight months of trying to secure a peace settlement in the Russia-Ukraine war have not fared well. Multiple times, Trump has said he was "two weeks" away from making a decision on Russia. In February, Trump stated that Zelensky "has no cards" and then rolled out a red carpet for Putin during their meeting in Alaska, where Putin lectured him on historical grievances, irritating Trump.

Following Alaska, Putin stepped up his attacks on Ukraine, and Trump grew irate to the point of later writing on Truth Social that Ukraine "is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form." Then came the chatter about Tomahawk missiles.

But when Ukraine has demonstrated strength, it has caught Trump's attention. Following Operation Spiderweb in June, when Ukraine launched drones from trucks deep inside Russia and destroyed roughly a third of Russia's strategic bomber fleet, Trump privately praised the strike, reportedly calling it "strong" and "badass." A report from the Hudson Institute noted that Ukraine could target the Volga–Don Canal, the emerging naval base in Abkhazia, or even Russia's Pacific Fleet.

In recent months, as Ukraine increased the tempo of its drone offensive against Russian oil refineries, gas shortages became the norm across Russia. After Trump publicly referenced the shortages, Russian media was forced to acknowledge the crisis, with one outlet admitting that "it is no longer possible to deny the signs of petrol shortages in the regions." Trump even ended up calling Russia a "paper tiger."

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, at least 11 senior Russian commanders have been killed in action or assassinated, including top generals Igor Kirillov and Yaroslav Moskalik, who were killed in separate bombings in Moscow in December 2024 and April 2025, respectively. Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) has helped hunt Russian war criminals and Wagner mercenaries in countries as far away as Mali, Sudan, and Syria.

If NATO or allied navies granted Ukraine permission to use launch sites in European waters, Kyiv's reach would grow substantially, potentially enabling strikes on military targets in areas previously seen as beyond its operational envelope, including St. Petersburg. The Europeans would be able to use Kyiv's reach as a deterrent for Russia's growing hybrid warfare across Europe. Short of that, Ukraine's drone campaigns can still impose severe economic costs on Russia by repeatedly disrupting airports and grounding flights in and out of Moscow.

Perhaps Ukraine doesn't need Tomahawks as much as it seems. First, Kyiv would face challenges launching them because it lacks the necessary launch systems. Second, as Trump has noted, the US supply is limited. Instead, Kyiv may lean more on a domestic cruise missile – Flamingo – and on smarter use of intelligence provided by partners. As Ukraine scales production and deployment of homegrown missiles, US intelligence support could multiply the effect of those strikes against Russian oil refineries.

Kyiv has amply demonstrated throughout 2025 that it can degrade the Russian armed forces and destroy Russia's energy infrastructure without significant US assistance. It has proven that it is strong and therefore deserving of Trump's support, as he likes to back winners.

At the same time, Russia's staggering losses of personnel, tanks, armored personnel carriers, planes, and helicopters, along with the growing paralysis of its energy sector and the steady weakening of its economy, show that Russia is far weaker than Putin's unwavering bravado suggests.

While Europe scrambles to build a "drone wall" mirroring Ukraine's experience, Russia can simply continue launching drones from ships beyond that barrier. Instead of relying mainly on defensive measures, Europe should help Ukraine scale not only drone production but also missile production. A more effective and straightforward way to blunt the growing drone threat to Europe is to strike at Russian drone factories, something Ukraine has already been doing.

"Russia's war economy works, but only up to a point. The Kremlin is limited not only by short-term production bottlenecks but also by fiscal strain, an overstretched labor market, technological isolation, and a fragmented defense-industrial base," notes Alexandra Prokopenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Despite channeling around 40 percent of its federal budget into defense, Russia's war machine is showing strain as labor shortages are mounting and Kyiv is now striking production hubs with Western-supplied Storm Shadow missiles.

As Ukraine expands its long-range strike capabilities, pressure on Russia will only intensify. "We shouldn't forget that Ukraine has a very capable and robust defense industry, which before 2014 ranked among the world's top ten defense exporters," said Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. "We are now beginning to see that industry recover and adapt after the blow it took in 2022."

The reality is that the Ukrainian David has proven to be technologically stronger and faster to adapt than the Russian Goliath. The US and Ukraine should recognize this fact and build a partnership rooted in mutual strength and shared advantage. If they cooperate on this basis, they can defeat Russia.

David Kirichenko is an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. His work on warfare has been featured in publications such as the Atlantic Council, the Center for European Policy Analysis, and the Modern Warfare Institute, among others. Follow him on X: @DVKirichenko.

Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires, and theory, he is the author of ten books of nonfiction, as well as Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires and Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.