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First blackout in Russia will be 'game-changer' for Ukraine negotiations — analyst

global.espreso.tv
Mon, 20 Oct 2025 21:10:00 +0300
First blackout in Russia will be 'game-changer' for Ukraine negotiations — analyst
Political scientist Taras Zahorodnii, managing partner of the National Anti-Crisis Group, said this in a comment for Espreso.He commented on recent news from the Western press reporting that Russia is again demanding that Ukraine completely withdraw its troops from the territory of the Donetsk region, and that American politicians allegedly pressured Zelenskyy to agree to this scenario during a closed meeting in Washington. Subsequently, Trump personally refuted this information, noting that he is a supporter of stopping hostilities and fixing the current line of demarcation on the battlefield.Taras Zahorodnii noted that the proposals for Ukraine's complete withdrawal from Donbas, which the Russians are repeating, should not be taken seriously."The position was and remains, as agreed with the Americans back in Saudi Arabia – a stop at the line of demarcation. And therefore, no one will be able to give away any territories to anyone. The Americans offered Putin a good deal: 'We stop at the line of demarcation.' But the Russians don't want this, because Putin said a year ago that a ceasefire is possible if Ukraine withdraws from the four regions and renounces NATO, and then they added the issue of reducing the army and giving up heavy weaponry. No one can and will do this nonsense," the political scientist explains.Zagorodny believes that even if the U.S. wanted to put pressure on Ukraine, it would not do so, because then the American leader would look weak. The political scientist also emphasizes that thanks to its own weapons production, Ukraine has gained agency in the negotiation field and therefore will not make such concessions.Against this background, Taras Zahorodnii considers a ceasefire unrealistic."If right now, in 5 minutes, Putin's head is cut off and he ceases to live, then maybe there will be some discussion. As long as Putin is alive, I believe that the Russians will never agree to our terms. And they have already stated this. In the Russian political system, if the boss has said something, the boss cannot back down, because then he will be a weakling. A weak boss means goodbye to Russia. Therefore, he will not renounce his words. As long as Putin is in power, I am sure he will fight. Even when his country is falling apart, he will make demands, saying that Ukraine must do something," explains Zahorodnii.How Ukraine should actThe political scientist emphasizes that Ukraine's main task now is to strike the Russian rear, which is exactly what it is doing."Attacks on the gas processing and oil refining industries have already moved on to the energy sector.When Ukraine organizes the first blackout in the European part of Russia during a good frost, which Ukraine is already striving for, the issues with the Russians will be handled completely differently. Up to the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. Because now Ukraine has transferred the war to the territory of Russia and is collapsing their rear, so that they have virtually no ability to fight. And as long as Putin is in power, he will repeat his rhetoric. I don't even believe that he will change his position. Because for him, it means physical death."According to Zahorodnii, changes in technology and weaponry are allowing Ukraine to hit key points on Russian territory more and more effectively. The political scientist adds that experts have identified about seven critical points in the European part of Russia, the destruction of which could cause large-scale power outages."According to observations, about a week and a half ago, we began to strike substations with precision. Experts who know their business say that, in principle, there are seven points in the European part of Russia that can be paralyzed to cause a paralysis of the energy sector in this territory. And the energy sector means oil refineries that are not working. Blackouts will begin to occur in Moscow. And Russia is large, while Ukraine is more compact. So, their territory can now become their problem. They've knocked out oil refining. There is a gasoline and now a diesel crisis in almost all regions, and especially in Crimea. Now they are moving on to electricity. I think that interesting things will be happening within two weeks," he said.Zahorodnii emphasizes that the tempo of operations is increasing, because last year there was no technical capability, and now every day Ukrainians are counting the strikes on Russia."We need to shoot at the territory of Russia, and it doesn't matter what Trump says there. He himself entered into a conversation with the Russians from a weak negotiating position. For example, when there was a meeting in Alaska. We produce our own weapons. Our task is to make our own missiles. In principle, I am sure that this topic with Tomahawks arose solely because Ukraine has successes in its missile program. Therefore, they are trying to give us Tomahawks to control the escalation. So that Ukraine does not produce too many of its own powerful weapons," the political scientist concluded.
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