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Ukraine's $46 billion Patriot deal faces 12-year delivery timeline amid global production crunch

global.espreso.tv
Mon, 20 Oct 2025 17:50:00 +0300
Ukraine's $46 billion Patriot deal faces 12-year delivery timeline amid global production crunch
Defense Express reported the information.President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially announced Ukraine's efforts to procure 25 Patriot air defense systems, immediately acknowledging that such a quantity cannot be delivered at once. The timeline depends heavily on the current production backlog and whether other customers are willing to yield their positions in the queue to prioritize Ukraine's urgent wartime needs.While no official details of the potential agreement have been disclosed, defense analysts estimate the total cost could exceed $46 billion—a figure that would be funded through frozen Russian assets worth approximately $300 billion. However, money may be the least of Ukraine's problems.The standard pricing model has shifted dramatically due to severe shortages of both existing systems and manufacturing capacity, compounded by U.S. pricing policies for European customers. The most recent price quote, offered to Denmark in August 2025, illustrates the new reality: the U.S. initially proposed $8.5 billion for two systems before dropping to $3.2 billion—which Denmark still rejected in favor of the European SAMP/T system.That Danish offer included two AN/MPQ-65 radars, two command posts, six launchers, and a minimal missile package of 36 GEM-T and 20 MSE interceptors. This translates to roughly $1.6 billion per incomplete battery with just three launchers. For Ukraine's operational requirements, each battery would need substantially more missiles—approximately 54 MSE interceptors to provide three full salvos for ballistic missile defense. At a minimum unit cost of $4.97 million per MSE missile (the Pentagon's own procurement price, likely higher for exports), the realistic cost per battery climbs to $1.85 billion, bringing the 25-battery total to over $46 billion.The greater challenge lies in production capacity and the existing order queue. Poland, Switzerland, Sweden, Romania, Germany, and the Netherlands are currently awaiting delivery of approximately 35 batteries of varying configurations. Poland's 2023 order for 12 batteries at $15 billion carries a delivery timeline extending to 2029—six years for half the order, suggesting a full 12-year wait for complete delivery under current production rates.Some flexibility exists: Germany and the Netherlands ordered six batteries specifically to compensate for systems already transferred to Ukraine, and Switzerland's five-system contract has reportedly been delayed to accommodate Ukrainian needs. However, Poland has firmly stated it will not yield its position, while Romania and Sweden are unlikely to compromise given their proximity to Russian territory.Unless production capacity undergoes dramatic expansion or multiple countries agree to defer their orders, Ukraine faces the prospect of waiting well over a decade to receive its full complement of Patriot systems—a timeline that underscores the urgent need for alternative air defense solutions in the interim.
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