1. When we talk about Trump, we need to keep two things in mind: first, he is seasoned by Alaska and understands that direct pressure on Ukraine would lead everyone — even pro-Trump media — to unite against him again. Second, Trump’s negotiation strategy is one of strategic ambiguity, leaving his opponent uncertain about his proposals until the very last moment.2. I’ll repeat what I’ve said before: the Budapest talks (or even discussions about them, if they don’t happen) are part of a negotiation strategy with China. Trump (and his administration) has spent the past few months doing everything possible to prevent China from forming a strong coalition, aiming instead to bring it to negotiations with the U.S. surrounded by a group of satellites sharing a common position — primarily to preserve the current global trade system, which the U.S. has been systematically undermining over the past 6–7 years.Trump has already achieved the minimum goal: such a coalition does not exist and will not form. And China’s most loyal (dependent) satellite — Russia — will be left in a state of uncertainty ahead of these talks, no matter how the Budapest negotiations turn out.3. I still have little faith in peace: Putin will do everything he can to derail the talks and present it to his information space as an attempt by Ukraine to sabotage them. But this narrative won’t work on American media, even if the Kremlin unleashes all its most secret “reserves” — the journalists.4. How can Trump pressure Putin? Unfortunately, only with Tomahawks, which would strike the Russian oil hub. But Tomahawks have always been — and remain — purely hybrid weapons, used so far just to intimidate Putin. Trump will likely mention them in Budapest. Whether this will affect the outcome of the talks is unknown. And the question here isn’t about logic — the conditions are very attractive for Putin — but about psychiatry.5. There are two possible scenarios. The less realistic one: Putin agrees to a ceasefire along the line of contact and Ukraine is forced to accept compromises on language, church, and missile issues. Then it would be pressured to hold presidential elections within 45–60 days (it would be impossible to organize parliamentary elections in that time).If the talks fail, the most likely outcome is a continuation of the war, where achieving peace will become virtually impossible without negotiation compromises between the U.S. and China.SourceAbout the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.