1. Russian media have so far completely ignored Trump's statement about the front line. Such unanimity is only possible with direct instructions from the Kremlin. In such cases, the Kremlin has three tactics: it gives its own interpretation; it allows the media to drown an unpleasant story in a free generation of ideas and media speculation, and then chooses three or four ideas that were most popular, so that everyone can come up with something for themselves, or it simply switches to silent mode. As of now (12 hours after Trump's statement), we have silent mode.2. It is difficult to say what this silent mode is connected with. It could mean preparation for agreeing to this formula and, at the same time, preparation for saying "no" in Budapest.3. Trump's conversation with Zelenskyy, it seems, was a kind of ultimatum with the following conditions: I (Trump) am seeking a ceasefire along the front line and agree to Putin's other wishes (allowing Russian parties to participate in elections, the Russian Orthodox Church, the Russian language, withdrawal of lawsuits, and (partial) lifting of sanctions). It is still unclear what demands Russia will make regarding the reduction of the missile program and our army and military-industrial complex in general. Well, then, if there is an agreement, presidential elections will be held within 45 days (possibly along with parliamentary elections).4. In this context, there was not even a theoretical chance to discuss Tomahawks and energy. And I will repeat what I said earlier: at this stage, Tomahawk is a hybrid story, not a military one. Putin was intimidated: if you don't agree to a deal, we will destroy the oil transshipment.5. Another issue that is still off the table is a license for American companies to extract rare earth minerals in northern Russia. Trump, after his conversation with Putin, stated that he expects economic projects to start after a peace agreement. This will also be part of the Budapest agreement (if there is an agreement). And here Putin is in an extremely difficult situation, because China will definitely oppose this.6. Trump wants to enter negotiations with China as a "peacemaker" in order to prevent a united China-Russia front. But even if there is no agreement, Russia will still remain in a position where it needs to balance between Beijing and Washington, and not completely fall under Beijing. Why? I remind you: about Tomahawks, which can easily be "pulled out" from under the table again.7. If negotiations fail, Trump will not be able to walk away from the Ukrainian issue. The logic of U.S. elections will force him to be on our side, at least in terms of selling weapons. Therefore, this scare tactic should be immediately dismissed. Although it will be promoted by Russians and useful idiots.SourceAbout the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.