According to Bloomberg data, Russia exported 3.57 million barrels of crude per day in the four weeks to October 5 — a level sustained only by diverting oil that can no longer be processed domestically.This redirection underscores the growing toll of Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure. Over the past two months, at least 15 refineries across European Russia have been hit, including the Kirishi refinery, struck twice within a month. These attacks have forced Moscow to push its export system to the edge, with refinery runs now below 5 million barrels per day — the lowest since April 2022.Bloomberg emphasizes that Russia’s export network is approaching its operational limits. Two of its key ports — Primorsk on the Baltic Sea and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea — are already operating near maximum capacity, while Ust-Luga remains well below its potential due to logistical bottlenecks. This means Russia can divert little additional crude if drone strikes intensify.Meanwhile, European nations are tightening controls on Russia’s shadow fleet, seeking to curb illicit tanker operations. France recently detained the tanker Boracay for operating without a valid flag, while Denmark is ramping up environmental and compliance checks in its waters. At the same time, the EU’s 19th sanctions package is expected to blacklist more than 100 additional vessels and target intermediaries in China and other countries that help Moscow circumvent restrictions.Bloomberg concludes that Moscow’s crude exports have reached a fragile balance — temporarily elevated but dependent on overstretched infrastructure and risky maritime logistics. Should Ukraine continue its deep-strike campaign, or Europe further restrict shadow fleet activity, Russia’s oil flow could quickly hit a hard ceiling, threatening one of the Kremlin’s last stable revenue streams.