There is little doubt that the Kremlin is orchestrating the latest drone provocations across Europe — a conclusion reinforced by the open threats made by Dmitry Medvedev. As Medvedev declared, “The main thing is for short-sighted Europeans to feel the danger of war on their own skin… so that they are afraid and tremble like stupid animals in a herd being driven to slaughter.”At the same time, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov cynically insists that “there are no grounds for accusing Moscow,” a statement that starkly contrasts with the aggressive rhetoric coming from Moscow’s political elite.According to the Resurgam analytical community, these provocations are part of a broader effort to pressure key European states — especially those that advocate for stronger measures against Russia. The Kremlin seeks not only to intimidate but also to sow division among EU member states by testing their resolve and response mechanisms.Resurgam analysts note that one of the main targets of Moscow’s current campaign is Denmark — a nation that both symbolically and practically represents the European will to resist Russian influence. Between September 22 and 28, Danish authorities recorded four incidents involving unidentified drones over strategic facilities. This pattern, they argue, is no coincidence.Denmark’s significance goes beyond its geography. As the country holding the EU presidency until the end of this year, Copenhagen effectively shapes the European agenda. Moreover, Danish society consistently supports policies that Moscow finds most threatening — including sanctions expansion, reparations loans for Ukraine, and the crackdown on Russia’s shadow oil fleet.Crucially, Denmark controls the key straits that serve as the exit point from the Baltic Sea. In early October, Copenhagen finalized and adopted a legal framework for detaining and inspecting shadow fleet tankers without violating international law — a landmark decision in the EU’s effort to close loopholes used by Moscow to bypass sanctions. This initiative began under Denmark’s presidency and is expected to be fully implemented by year’s end.Resurgam concludes that this explains the Kremlin’s focus on Denmark: it seeks to intimidate a country that plays a leading role in tightening the sanctions regime yet has relatively limited military potential.Nevertheless, Copenhagen has made its stance clear. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stated that the Danish military should “shoot down any unidentified objects that pose a threat.” Similar positions have been voiced by Germany — which is preparing legislative amendments — as well as Romania, France, and Lithuania.Another focal point of Kremlin pressure is Belgium. As Resurgam points out, Belgian politicians have shown reluctance to endorse the EU plan for a reparations loan to Ukraine, which would exchange real funds from frozen Russian assets for “EU guarantee bonds.” Yet Brussels’ growing unity is forcing Belgium closer to a compromise — a development Moscow is trying to disrupt. The October 3 incidents near the German–Belgian border are seen by Resurgam as an attempt to exert psychological pressure on Belgian decision-makers.Moscow’s broader goal, the analysts note, is to redefine “red lines” yet again — this time threatening retaliation over the detention of Russian tankers, the use of frozen assets, and the supply of long-range heavy weapons to Ukraine.The reemergence of Angela Merkel in the media with ambiguous statements, according to Resurgam, reflects Moscow’s renewed attempts to leverage old political networks in Germany — networks that were once instrumental in promoting the Kremlin’s energy and economic interests in Europe.In conclusion, the analytical community emphasizes that the Kremlin’s current provocations are not acts of strength, but of fear. As Resurgam writes, “To avoid escalation, one must respond to escalation with escalation, because the Kremlin is only showing off — but it fears a real response.”