Ukraine pushes for new IMF program as protracted war changes economic reality
global.espreso.tv
Thu, 25 Sep 2025 18:20:00 +0300

Roman Nitsovych, Director of Research at the Ukrainian analytical center DiXi Group, said this in a comment to Espreso. "The current cooperation program with the IMF was adopted in March 2023, but it was designed back in late 2022. At that time, a scenario of a relatively quick end to the war and a transition to reconstruction was envisioned. The macroeconomic assumptions and scenarios that were incorporated into the program's parameters corresponded to the realities of late 2022 – early 2023. Now, we see that this is a war of attrition. It has turned out to be of a completely different format, and the needs are completely different," Roman Nitsovych explains regarding the start of negotiations with the IMF for a new cooperation program, even though the current program is scheduled to run until the end of 2027.According to him, even for 2025, Ukraine has a fiscal deficit, meaning there is a need to find funds to cover existing expenses, including defense.Recently, Bloomberg reported that the volume of the new credit program for Ukraine could be approximately $8 billion. This is significantly less than Ukraine's estimated need for additional financing. For instance, for 2025 alone, the unfunded financial needs exceed $18 billion. At the same time, Roman Nitsovych suggests that the amount of the new loan could be larger."Negotiations are still ongoing. There is no final or even interim decision yet. Therefore, I would not rely on the figures that have been announced, because so far they are not confirmed by anything," he says. "Again, if we are talking about a new long-term program for four years or more, then obviously the amount will be significantly larger. For example, the current program is designed for four years, and the total loan volume is the equivalent of $15.5 billion."On September 3, a mission from the International Monetary Fund arrived in Kyiv and immediately had to go to a bomb shelter. The purpose of the visit was to assess the current program's performance. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance announced the start of negotiations for a new cooperation program.
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