ContentsRussia's main bet – the winter offensive campaignPreparation for a difficult winterSpring battle for the Donetsk regionEspreso spoke with Dmytro Zhmailo, co-founder and executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, who explained which offensives are in question and what to expect from the Russian army.Russia's main bet – the winter offensive campaignAn important aspect, which the military expert spoke about, is the failed summer campaign of the Russian troops. As a result, the Russian Federation did not achieve results commensurate with the losses it suffered."They did not start or finish the battle for any large city. They made some progress near Kupyansk, they are trying to scurry around, taking advantage of the fact that we have few infantry units, and very often they are just chased by drones like cockroaches and they try to get them, to smoke them out of the holes they crawl into," the expert noted. It is precisely for this reason that Russia will place its main bet on the winter offensive campaign, having completed a large-scale regrouping of troops, the likes of which has not been seen since the defense of the Kyiv region. "That is, the more combat-ready units, which are scattered in the Sumy direction, the north of Kharkiv region, as the president mentioned, Kupiansk and Pokrovsk directions, will be moved to the Pokrovsk direction, if it is conditionally combined with the Dobropillia direction. They will concentrate their most professional forces there – this is the infamous 55th Marine Brigade, which fought in the Kursk region, then in the Sumy region, as well as the 76th VDV Division, whose special forces entered the Pokrovsk area as a sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG). Instead of the Sumy region, where we managed to repel them, they will bring in motorized rifle regiments, which are usually infantry," added Dmytro Zhmailo.Thus, during the winter, the invading Russian forces will try to achieve a breakthrough – to close the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration, or try to advance on Dobropillia in order to avoid storming Kostiantynivka, by cutting the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka highway.The expert added that the Russian-American negotiations have once again reached a dead end, and therefore the Kremlin needs to achieve and demonstrate actual progress and gains on the battlefield."The president clearly said that Ukraine will not trade territories, and certainly not exchange them. So Putin was given the summer to bend Kyiv with a strong position and gain something. However, it did not work out, so now everything indicates that the Kremlin will have time to advance in the winter as well, so that each side comes to the negotiations with new positions and in new realities," he explained.Preparation for a difficult winterIn addition, moving to the winter offensive, Russia will carry out regular shelling of energy infrastructure, putting pressure on Ukraine: "They are stamping out 175 Shaheds and Gerbers daily and are preparing stockpiles to organize launches of a thousand drones at a time." At the same time, the expert warned of another important nuance – if the Russian Federation does not receive external assistance, and Western sanctions are strengthened, then the spring offensive campaign will be on a smaller scale.Spring battle for the Donetsk regionThe co-founder of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation emphasized that in the event of a successful coincidence of external circumstances, the Russian army will have to further reduce the area they will try to capture."We are talking about some one direction, or a point where they will want to get at least some result," the expert added.First of all, as Dmytro suggests, in the spring, the Russian Federation will focus on the Donetsk region. And, again, we are talking about diplomacy – a demonstrative fulfillment of at least one of the "goals of the special military operation," that is, the complete occupation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.At the same time, he emphasized that the war is no longer just a Russian-Ukrainian one."Our front has become a war of Western democracy, which we represent and which is not very willing to provide for us, and Eastern autocracy, where a coalition of the axis of evil has formed with North Korea, China, Russia, and Iran. It is the latter who are talking about cooperation," emphasizes Dmytro Zhmailo, "where China has provided technology for fiber-optic drones and machine tools for the production of missiles, which the Russian Federation can now produce about 2,000 per year." Also, the analyst stressed that Putin is in no way interested in peace, and the only thing that can incline him to it is long-range strikes deep into Russia. However, even then, the dictator will have hopes that Europe will once again lose its vigilance and reaction and will take the lead in the arms race for a future war."But if we increase our capabilities and become a full-fledged part of the Western world, and some cooperation already exists now, such as with the military-industrial complex, then it will simply be even more unprofitable for the Russian Federation. Then the Kremlin will have to shift its focus to other directions – whether to terrorize Poland, or attack the Baltic states, or block the Suwałki corridor," concluded the executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, Dmytro Zhmailo.